Dear friends
 |
| Four-Ward! - Yes He Did. |
The 2012 US Presidential Election
was a cliff-hanger, and Obama managed to win it in style! By clinching several
swing states, Obama yet again emerged as the undisputed champion of the
American people. But, has anything changed in the last 4 years? Are there any
trends that both the Democrats and the Republicans need to be wary about? This
post analyses the exit polls of 2012 as compared with those of 2008, and tries
to put things in perspective. Please note that this post is based solely on the
ever-reliable CNN exit polls of 2008 and 2012.
Obama’s Opponent in 2008: Senator John McCain
Obama’ Opponent in 2012: Mitt Romney, former Governor of
Massachusetts
Gender:
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
||||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
Men
|
47%
|
47%
|
49%
|
45%
|
48%
|
52%
|
Women
|
53%
|
53%
|
56%
|
55%
|
43%
|
44%
|
As can be seen from the table
above, the largest chunk of swing voters have been men, who shifted their
loyalties away from Obama to give a commanding lead to Romney. However, both
polls reported men as making up just 47% of the electorate, which meant that
Romney’s gains were effectively curtailed by women not moving towards the Red
camp. As long as Women outnumber Men in the polls, it looks like the Democrats
will keep the White House J
Race:
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
||||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
White
|
74%
|
72%
|
43%
|
39%
|
55%
|
59%
|
African-American
|
13%
|
13%
|
95%
|
93%
|
04%
|
06%
|
Latino
|
09%
|
10%
|
67%
|
71%
|
31%
|
27%
|
Asian
|
02%
|
03%
|
62%
|
73%
|
35%
|
26%
|
Other
|
03%
|
02%
|
66%
|
58%
|
31%
|
38%
|
Although the race charts do not
seem to indicate any huge swing in the votes of minorities, it does show a
significant shift of support of the white voters from Obama to his opponent,
which explains the closeness of this election. However, the
one-percentage-point rise in the Hispanic vote, the largest growing voting
segment in the USA, coupled with Obama’s stand on immigration, tilted the
Hispanic vote in his favour (a rise of 4%) that helped Obama capture the key
states of Colorado and Nevada, both battleground states, that Obama managed to
win comfortably.
 |
| The Ballot |
The fact that Mitt Romney won 59%
of white votes – the biggest majority by any presidential candidate in U.S.
history that failed to win White House – shows that the Republican Party is
headed for troubled days. States like California, New Mexico, Nevada and
Colorado, which have a sizeable number of Hispanic voters, have already gone
blue. States like Arizona, Texas, Florida and Utah are showing increase in the
number of Hispanic voters and the trend in the next 10 years will see these
states go blue consistently unless the Republicans do something to dispel the
notion that they are a party of white men.
In 2004, George W. Bush won 44% of
all Hispanic votes, which gave him a resounding victory, both in the total
number of votes and in the Electoral College too. Four years later, this
plummeted to 31% for John McCain (in spite of endorsement from Daddy Yankee!)
And this year, Romney achieved just 27%.
The small dip in African-American
votes was expected, but it was not as much as the Republicans wanted it to be,
or predicted it to be. After all, a known devil is better than an unknown one J
Age:
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
||||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
18-24
|
10%
|
11%
|
66%
|
60%
|
32%
|
36%
|
25-29
|
08%
|
08%
|
66%
|
60%
|
31%
|
38%
|
30-39
|
18%
|
17%
|
54%
|
55%
|
44%
|
42%
|
40-49
|
21%
|
20%
|
49%
|
48%
|
49%
|
50%
|
50-64
|
27%
|
28%
|
50%
|
47%
|
49%
|
52%
|
65
or Over
|
16%
|
16%
|
45%
|
44%
|
53%
|
56%
|
Obama lost a sizeable chunk of
the young vote (18-29 age group), held steady among the middle-aged voters
(30-49) and lost quite a bit of the elderly vote (age 50 and above). The
middle-aged voters, who constitute nearly 38% of the vote bank, have favoured
Obama over his opponent, which was expected as most of the job losses happened
to those who were elderly and most of the new jobs went to the middle-aged
experienced guys instead of going to the youngsters. However, the trend is
quite clear from the past two elections – the elder you are, the redder you
vote J
It was quite surprising to see
Romney gain a significant chunk of the elderly vote, even though he is quite
young compared to his predecessor John McCain (who was expected to win many
elderly votes, but didn’t). Elderly voters in states like Connecticut generally
lean Democrat, while those in Florida go Republican, but the overall trend
suggests that the Democrats needs to ensure that they capture the elderly vote,
especially with a large increase in their population that is expected to happen
in the next 20 years, and with the dedication they show in voting for their guy
(as
seen here) – primarily because they have nothing much to do anyways on an
Election Day !
Party Affiliation:
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
||||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
Democrat
|
39%
|
38%
|
89%
|
92%
|
10%
|
07%
|
Republican
|
32%
|
32%
|
09%
|
06%
|
90%
|
93%
|
Independent
|
29%
|
29%
|
52%
|
45%
|
44%
|
50%
|
 |
| Where did it go wrong for Romney? |
It is clear that the Independent
vote did not matter this year, as Romney’s sizeable victory in capturing the
independent vote, as well as energizing more of his party-men to vote for him,
did not help in the bigger picture. However, what was clear is that the
Democrat and Republican votes were much more polarised and energised than they
were four years ago.
Ideology:
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
||||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
Liberal
|
22%
|
25%
|
89%
|
86%
|
10%
|
11%
|
Moderate
|
44%
|
41%
|
60%
|
56%
|
39%
|
41%
|
Conservative
|
34%
|
35%
|
20%
|
17%
|
78%
|
82%
|
Romney could not gain ground even
though Obama’s loss of Liberal and Moderate votes was quite enough (3%age and
4%age points respectively). However, the number of conservatives that seem to
have titled towards Romney was quite high, even when compared to the relatively
more moderate John McCain of 2008.
Religion:
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
||||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
Protestant
|
54%
|
53%
|
45%
|
42%
|
54%
|
57%
|
Catholic
|
27%
|
25%
|
54%
|
50%
|
45%
|
48%
|
Jewish
|
02%
|
02%
|
78%
|
69%
|
21%
|
30%
|
Other
|
06%
|
07%
|
73%
|
74%
|
22%
|
23%
|
None
|
12%
|
12%
|
75%
|
70%
|
23%
|
26%
|
No surprises there as Obama
managed to retain his lead among Catholics and Jews, while losing the
Protestant vote yet again – which is not surprising as most of the protestants
are White males. The Jewish vote dipped by a large margin, but failed to make
any dent even in the swing states as the numbers are quite small.
Income:
Annual Income
|
Voter %age
|
Obama
|
Opponent
|
|||
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
2008
|
2012
|
|
Less
than 50k
|
38%
|
41%
|
60%
|
60%
|
38%
|
38%
|
50k
to 100k
|
36%
|
31%
|
49%
|
46%
|
49%
|
52%
|
More
than 100k
|
26%
|
28%
|
49%
|
44%
|
49%
|
54%
|
Romney gained ground among voters
who earn more than 50k per annum, partly because of public anger over the job
losses, or pay cuts that might have pushed some income levels to the lower end
of that bracket. However, Obama is still a champion of the masses, retaining a
high majority of the votes of people earning less than 50k per annum, who
constitute more than 40% of the electorate.
 |
| Question Marks for the Republicans. |
Now this was a post about the numbers which mattered in this election. For the story behind the numbers, watch out for further analysis from our desk.
What went wrong for Romney. What did Obama do right in these elections. What is the future of the GOP. And where do these elections leave the United States of America, politically and ideologically. All the analysis in the coming days and weeks. Watch Out!
