Last Night Fight

As America votes to elect its 45th President, here's looking at some of the key Battleground Swing States, and the overall National Picture (according to different polls) as well.

First lets look at the Swing States-

Florida - Mitt Romney leads this key state by 1.5 - 3 points. With 29 EVs, this is a Key State for Romney.
Most of the polls have called this state for Romney.

Ohio - The Single most important Swing state in this election. Obama leads this state by 1-2 points. Both the candidates need to win this state!

North Carolina - Romney leads this state, and is expected to win this comfortably!

Virginia - Too close to call. Could go either way. Must win state for Romney again!

Iowa - Obama leads the polls in this all important state.

Depending on which way these Swing States go, the national map varies accordingly.
The last poll separates Barack Obama and Mitt Romney by 0.7 points. That's how close it is.

The accuracy of these polls will be clear by tomorrow morning, and so will be the 45th President of The United States of America.


For a National Election Map Graphic Breakdown - go to 270towin.

For all the National Poll Updates - go to RealClearPolitics.

OHIO - The GameChanger?

For the Record, as I write this post at 0100hrs IST, the United States of America is voting. And so is Ohio. What is also happening at the same time is that Mitt Romney is back in Cleveland for some more campaigning!

Now some numbers. both the candidates have made 83 trips to Ohio (cumulative figure). Yes you read it right. 83! .. That is how important Ohio is to this Presidential Race. It might only have 18 electoral votes, but it sure is one of the most exciting Swing states on the map!

President Obama in Ohio

The Ohio Poll from the University of Cincinnati, released Monday morning, gives Obama 50 percent, Romney 48.5 percent. A Columbus Dispatch poll published Sunday showed Obama with a 2-point margin. Based on that, the state could go for either candidate, but Obama appears to be in a slightly stronger position in this key battleground.

If Obama wins Ohio, his decision to bail out the auto industry may be judged to have saved his presidency. If Romney loses Ohio, his decision to write an op-ed for the New York Times, which carried the headline- “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” may well be remembered as 872 words that cost him more than anyone could have predicted at the time.

As a matter of fact, 25 of the last 27 Presidents have won Ohio. Ohio is the single most important state for the electoral math of both Obama and Romney. With it, Obama is close to unstoppable as long as he doesn’t lose longtime Democratic presidential strongholds like Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania. For Romney, this could be the clincher, as the race heads west.

Bottom-line -  No Republican has EVER won the Presidency without winning Ohio!

For more Insights into the Voting in Ohio , go through this Daily Beast Article.

Mitt Romney's 'Palin Moment'

Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate has all the ingredients of being the pivot point in the 2012 campaign.
Romney is enjoying the initial thrust of energy from adding Ryan to the ticket. He is drawing the biggest and most enthusiastic crowds of his campaign so far. To cut it short, this is Romney's 'Palin Moment'.

Having chosen a candidate like Paul Ryan over safer and less exciting candidates, Romney has taken that chance. One which has the potential to either take his campaign to another orbit, or potentially sink it, deja vu John McCain 2008. In order to achieve the former, Romney needs to carve out an identity that takes the best of what Ryan offers, while insulating him from the most controversial elements of Ryan’s agenda.

In truth, on the big issues, Romney and Ryan are in agreement. They favor big tax cuts in which the wealthiest Americans would benefit. They back cuts in domestic discretionary spending. Both support changes that would convert Medicare into a premium support program for younger workers. Romney wants significant reforms in Social Security as well. Their priorities are the same.

Romney’s campaign has opportunities. Obama’s economic record remains a major problem and the biggest threat to his reelection. Obama is vulnerable as well to the criticism that he is not offering real leadership on entitlement reform.

And it remains to be seen whether Mitt Romney will have his 'Palin Moment' or not!

Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama.

With the Presidential Elections now exactly 5 months away, the battle lines have been drawn. Mitt Romney will challenge Barack Obama on November 4th, as he clinches the Republican nomination officially after reaching the magic figure of 1144!

So the big question now is, Will Mitt Romney be able to pose a realistic threat to Obama's re-election? Will Mitt Romney be able to pose a stiff challenge to one of the most charismatic leaders of the modern era? .. Well, if you all you folks out there still believe that Barack Obama's re-election is just a formality, as was the notion a few months back, you might well be up for a surprise. According to recent polls, Mitt Romney is giving Barack Obama more than a fight, and it sure does look like a tight finish is in the offing.

Looking back in history, the standard to which all close elections are judged is the 2000 race between Al-Gore and Bush. In that election, Gore won 50,999,897 votes (48.38 percent) to Bush’s 50,456,002 votes (47.87 percent). Bush won thanks to a 271 to 267 electoral vote margin over Gore.

The Presidential Race 4 years later, between Bush and John Kerry was keenly contested too. And it’s entirely possible that the Obama-Romney race this fall will equal or even eclipse the closeness of the 2004 contest between Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. For the record, Bush took 62,040,610 votes (50.73 percent) to Kerry’s 59,028,439 (48.27 percent) in that election and were it not for Bush’s 118,000-vote margin in Ohio, Kerry would have been elected president.

When all of the votes are counted on Nov. 6, the 2012 election might look a lot more like 2004 or even 2000 than it does 2008. And with such a small margin expected, little things can make a very big difference.

In a blowout presidential election, a few large issues dominate. In a tight election, a range of smaller concerns, important to strategic constituencies in battleground states, can end up being crucial. A tight election can sometimes turn out to be an aggregate result of many crucial and swing states.

President Obama may have hoped for a decisive reelection victory, styled on Ronald Reagan’s in 1984. At best, he will return to the White House in the manner of George W. Bush in 2004 — after a scrambling fight across the Electoral College map. For Mitt Romney, its an opportunity of a lifetime. As of now, he seems to be the right person, at the right time, at the right place.

They say that 5 Months is a long long time in Politics. I'm sure we are yet to see many twists and turns in this historic election. All I would say is that It would be fun to cover these elections with all of you!

And as Ravi Shastri would say, I hope this one goes Down to the Wire!

Mohit Dayal

What about the War?

Ever since the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centers, barring the recent economic downturn, perhaps the most contentious and debatable issue in the USA has been its military presence on foreign soil. Not that it is something alien to this superpower but then the current military presence has several dimensions which currently do, and will continue to in the future, affect greatly, not only the political arrangements in the world but much more significantly, those in the United States of America.


When George W. Bush announced that USA would be invading Afghanistan, the move was essential to pacify the millions of people filled with angst. But today, 11 years after 9/11, that announcement has molded itself into actions of much more profound implications.


Firstly, the USA invading Afghanistan was understandable, but then its invasion of Iraq without a United Nations mandate in its favor smelled foul, for it pointed out the big brother policy of the USA in all its obviousness. The billions of Dollars spent in these wars and the thousands of lives lost may well be a crucial factor in deciding who will be taking the Presidential Oath in January 2013. 
Today, Osama Bin Laden is dead and perhaps what was the last thread of emotional attachment to this war on terror has been lost. More importantly, it has been replaced with an overwhelming desire to feed one’s family, to fulfill one’s needs, a desire which was curtailed to a great degree by the recent economic depression.


Today, when the Chinese economy dictates the fiscal policies of the world, the United States and its President need to sit up and decide what is more important, spending billions in waging wars to ensure its supremacy or to use the same billions to shore up its economy.


Now, Obama has spelt out the plan to bring back troops from Afghanistan and use that money on nation building, on strengthening the economy.


“Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard economic times. It is time to focus on nation-building here at home.” , said Obama, in his speech from the White House East Room, on 22nd June 2011.


Mitt Romney on the other hand has stated that cost will not be a factor in the effort to ensure that USA remains free of any potential military or nuclear threats in the future.


“There will be some who argue it’s too expensive now, we’ve got to bring the troops home right now, or others will say, politically we need to make one decision or another … You don’t make a decision about our involvement in a conflict based on dollars and cents alone...”
- 14 June 2011, New York Times


The condition of the US economy does not make it likely that Romney’s hardlining strategy will be very popular among the popular mass still reeling under the adverse effects of the recession.


Coming to Iran, however, both have said unequivocally that all possible options which might be required to subdue Iran must be kept at hand including military actions. Thus Iran should not be a major factor but the image of Romney that has built up of being someone who is much more likely than Obama to jump into military action might hamper his chances to a great extent.


Finally, it will come down to the question between long term economic growth and stability or the steps to ensure that no other country can potentially ever have a nuclear program in the world. Barack Obama seems to be making the right noises and playing on a much more practical note than the Bush-like opinions of Romney.


And only time shall tell what the American public wants.


Arya Chakrabarty

Refresh!

Hello Friends,

As we look forward to the business end of this Presidential Race, we at R2TWH would like to ensure uninterrupted and in-depth analysis of the 2012 US Presidential Elections. The past couple of months have been hectic, and the fact that the Republican Primaries were done and dusted, with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich pulling out, has resulted in very few posts! .. But as we head into the month of June, we look forward to the Republican and the Democratic Conventions, the running mates of both the sides, and the fierce battle between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The blog will now concentrate on the Presidential fight between the two main contenders, covering relevant issues at the same time as well!


 I would like to introduce all of you to Mr. Arya Chakrabarty, a colleague of mine, who would also be contributing to this blog, along with His excellency Mr. Varun Reddy and yours truly!
We hope to cover these elections with the endeavor to learn, and help other people learn as well!

Happy Blogging!


Mohit Dayal

Rick Santorum Steps Down and Ron Paul might just spring a surprise!

As you must have heard, Rick Santorum stepped down from the race after his losses in Maryland and Wisconsin, to Mitt Romney. He was not on the ballot in Washington D.C. which was won by Mitt Romney too. The media attributed this to his growing concern for his three-year-old daughter, who was diagnosed with Pneumonia and also suffers from a rare genetic condition called Trisomy 18. This departure leaves just Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich as challengers for Mitt Romney in his bid for the nomination, and both of them have not lived upto the hype they've created, or so it seems.

As you can see at this link, which explains the delegate-allocation process in detail, states that have caucuses have not yet allotted their delegates to the candidates - the media numbers are just speculations based on the first stage of the caucus conducted in each stage. As the link mentions, Ron Paul may actually currently be, by some estimates, in 3rd or even 2nd place overall behind Romney and truly seems to be gaining steam as the process continues to unfold. As we can see from the results in Colorado, Republicans elected 21 delegates and 21 alternates on a particular day, and 13 of the 18 winning delegates elected were on the Paul/Santorum unity slate - where supporters of two front-runners united against Mitt Romney's supporters! This was a total shock for the Romney gang, who thought they would find it easy to get elected after Santorum dropped out from the race.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/santorum-delegates-begin-flocking-ron-paul

http://www.collegian.com/index.php/blog/politics/2012/04/santorum_supporters_ensure_ron_pauls_colorado_delegate_coup_catches_attention_of_mainstream_press