Showing posts with label Debate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Debate. Show all posts

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Analysis of the 2nd SC Presidential Debate...


Since this was the first debate I’d seen for the 2012 campaign, it was a good experience. I had not seen Michelle Bachmann or Rick Perry speak in a debate, but I did see them speak on TV during and after the Iowa caucuses, and they were not impressive from any angle. I was hoping for something better in this debate, something that would prove that one of these candidates had it in him to beat the incumbent President on D-day.

This state could well be the game-
changer in this election !!
The debate was far from striking. Only two candidates, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, spoke with enough calm and conviction that befits a President. Rick Santorum looked utterly helpless; his personality is not made for debates and speeches I guess. Newt Gingrich made a fiery start, but could not sustain the momentum throughout the debate. Here are the pros and cons of each candidate, based on what I’d seen in the debate, and on what I’ve read about them before:

Mitt Romney:

Pros:
Ø  Skilled at debates, knows how to turn every point into his favour (as was evident in this debate)
Ø  Has served as a Governor of a predominantly Democrat state (Massachusetts) and was highly praised for his leadership
Ø  Enjoys a front-runner status after coming 2nd in the 2008 primaries
Ø  Has a pan-American appeal; leads National polls conducted by various sources
Ø  Might be able to attract moderate votes using his past-record

Cons:
Ø  Perceived as a Wall-Street President, because of his previous work at Bain Capital
Ø  Not that appealing to the traditional conservative base
Ø  Has not yet released his taxes, raising unnecessary suspicions

Rick Santorum:

Pros:
Ø  He is very conservative, and has a solid conservative background. His mild-natured personality can be appealing to the traditional conservative base
Ø  He has been a long-serving senator and hence has a record to talk about
Ø  He is quite young and does not portray a negative attitude
Ø  He has won the Iowa caucuses (by a very close margin though)

Cons:
Ø  He cannot attract the moderates and the independents, if he wins the Republican nomination. Obama would have a easy time defeating him
Ø  His mild-natured face doesn’t make him look good when he tries to speak forcefully
Ø  He lacks conviction, and thinks that his conservative credentials are enough to win

Newt Gingrich:

Pros:
Ø  Enjoys good support among members of his own party
Ø  Can expect endorsements from many political quarters once he wins a few states
Ø  Solid Republican Track record in the Congress; Former Speaker and Current Chief Whip
Ø  Pan-American appeal

Cons:                                                       
Ø  Although he is appealing to the conservative base, he has a weak family history to show (2 divorces) which might play a big role if he is nominated to face Obama
Ø  He has not put on a good showing so far (4th in Iowa and New Hampshire) and desperately needs a win to get the desired momentum
Ø  His record can be easily attacked as he has been a Washington-guy for most of his life
Ø  Temperamental and annoying (totally personal opinion)

Ron Paul:

Pros:
Ø  Consistent track record – with no change in ideals and position over many years
Ø  Long-serving member of the US Congress
Ø  Strong grassroots campaign (similar to that of Obama in the 2008 elections)
Ø  Huge fan following among the youth in spite of his age
Ø  Legally sound, uses the constitution as the basis of all his arguments
Ø  Will be able to attract the independent voters to a great extent, which could be a game changer in case he is nominated (or as a VP candidate)

Cons:
Ø  A Libertarian Radical who wants to shake up the system
Ø  Lacks appeal among the traditional conservative base
Ø  Lacks appeal among core-Republican voters as his ideas are less Republican and more Libertarian in nature
Ø  Age could be a major issue if he is nominated as a Republican Candidate, even though is as fit as a fiddle (Age was a major issue in 2008)
Ø  Has a limited yet consistent Pan-American appeal

I tried to add as many pros and cons as I could, to make the post seen as fair as possible. As the race is just two states old, the next state will play a vital role in deciding who goes on and who quits. Two states, two people quit. Hoping for another good news after South Carolina :)

Varun Reddy.

Friday, January 20, 2012

The 2nd South Carolina Republican Presidential Debate


One of them will contest B.H. Obama
in November, 2012 :)

The 2nd South Carolina Republican Presidential Debate was the first Presidential Debate that I happened to see live on TV. Since CNN is the only channel that airs these debates on my cable network, I have to be content with watching these debates only on CNN. The schedule for the Presidential Debates is given in detail at the following link. The link also gives you the video footage of the past Presidential Debates, in case one is interested in them.

The debate was quite interesting. For one, it consisted of just 4 candidates, meaning more time was given for each candidate to speak and air his views. The debate also saw a lot of infighting among the candidates, although in a controlled manner. I will try to give a recap of the debate, as it happened, below. Please note: I was typing while the candidates were speaking J Hard to do that in the Delhi cold when you cannot afford a heater in your hall-room J Here is my analysis of the debate:

The fiery start: ABC News had aired an interview of Newt Gingrich’s former wife, wherein she said that in 1999, Newt Gingrich told her “accept an open relationship”. CNN asked him about this, and Gingrich took it as a personal attack, and lashed out at the CNN cast and crew. He vehemently denied the charges, and said that this was not a topic to start a Presidential Debate with. Paul joined says that while talking about corporate influence in Govt. they forget the influence they have in the Media. It was ABC news that had released the Newt story, but since CNN decided to mention it too, Newt lashed out at CNN staff and anchor too.

On the question of how to rebuild the economy, there was the usual rhetoric, with a mention about Gingrich’s earlier attack on Romney’s record at Bain Capital. Romney was given a chance to explain his claim of how he helped create 120k jobs.

On support for veterans, Romney mentioned what was done in his own state, Ron Paul spoke well on what is wrong with the military now, Gingrich put some good points, and Santorum piggy-backed the rest of the candidates’ points.

On Obamacare, Romney wanted to totally repeal it and give people a chance to have their own insurance, and wanted Healthcare to be run like a market. Gingrich supported Romney’s stand and also attacked Obama. Santorum mentioned Rommneycare and put forth “facts” about the premiums from the state of M.A. and tells Romney that Obama will attack him on those points. He also took on Newt Gingrich in a similar way. Romney responded that the costs in M.A. were higher even before the law came into effect, and that 92% already had insurance. Santorum responded that most of the 92% had Medicare / Medicaid – to which Romney replied that Medicaid is a federal mandate and a joint program funded by both the state and the centre, and that he wanted to give entire power to the states.

Newt Gingrich then talked about his being the Chief Whip of the house who opposed the Obamacare to the core and got the core support from his party. Santorum then said that Newt supported the core basis of it for 10 years. Newt admitted that he was wrong, and that he finally figured it out. Rick asked if it took him 10 years to figure that out. Meanwhile, Ron Paul finally gets to speak – he mentions his credentials as a doctor. He said Rick Santorum supported prescription drug programs which actually expands Government control. He said we must divert money from overseas spending to Medical support for those who need it. He also said that Government cannot take care of everyone and everybody; it can only take care of those who really need it.

Rick Santorum says it is worrisome that Newt Gingrich is suggesting that he get out of the race, even though Newt came below him in both the races so far. Newt talked about his history and on how he helped build the party etc. Santorum attacked him back saying he did work for himself and not for the country. Newt defends his record here. Mitt Romney says he is outside Washington unlike the 3 people on the stage that spent their lives in Washington. He knows how the economy works. Now here, Newt made a blunder saying that it was he, as a legislator, who made the rules under which Mitt Romney worked and made profits. Romney says, “You were speaker for 4 years, I was a businessman for 25 years”, which got a huge uproar from the crowd.

On releasing tax records, Paul doesn’t want to show his tax records because he is quite embarrassed about it, as it would be very less compared to that of the other candidates. Romney said he will release it in April, and that the Democrats will attack him on that. The CNN moderator asked why not release the past records at least. Mitt said he wants a single attack and single discussion, not repeated attacks, and hence will release once this years’ records are done. Newt has released his taxes already. Rick Santorum said he does his own taxes, and that all records are at his home, and that he will release his taxes once he is home(a very poor PJ). Romney says he is not going to apologise for being a successful man, and that he did not inherit his parent’s money.

On productivity: Nothing interesting per se.

On SOPA: Newt favours freedom, says it’s a wrong thing to do to curb freedom. Romney said that SOPA would totally disrupt the internet, and to use other laws to curb piracy. Rick said he won’t support the law, but also cautions the Internet is not a free zone and that he would not support piracy. SOPA goes too far, but IP rights should be respected. Ron Paul mentioned he was first Republican to sign a petition along with the Democrats to repeal this law.

If you had to change one thing and do it again, what would you do?

Newt sticks to the Internet point. Mitt jokes about getting 25 votes in Iowa. He then says that anyone on the stage can be better president than what Obama is. Santorum won’t change anything as he is happy so far. Paul will continue to do what he has always done, but says he would want to speak slower and with more conviction.

On Illegal Aliens:

Newt: First control the border. Get a bill by 2014. Favours English as the official language of the Govt. Modernize visas as it’s easy to get them illegally. Wants easier deportation laws. Put enormous economic sanction on companies that hire them. Won’t deport people who are living in USA for a long long time.

Mitt: Similar to what Newt says. No preferential pathway. Go home and apply for citizenship like everyone else (same line as Newt). Legally of course. They will be given some time to put their affairs in place before going back home.

Rick: I am an immigrant. Immigration is at the heart of the country. But illegal immigration is bad. Romney said a few years ago that they should be given a path to citizenship. So did Newt. That’s like Obama-speak. Respect and obey laws. We cant treat non-Americans and Americans differently.

Mitt: My position is the same as what it was 4 years ago. We are a party of legal immigration.

Ron Paul: I am not soft on the issue of illegal immigration too. But look at the incentives for people to come. Even Americans don’t want to take up a low paying job. We need more resources for legal immigration. Quit defending other’s borders and take care of our own borders.

Abortion issue:

Newt: Talks about Romney’s past and on how after he became pro-life he supported abortion in Romneycare.

Mitt: Romneycare has no mention of Abortion, it was MA courts that did it. We don’t ask people about their pro-life credentials before making them judges. I was a pro-life Governor and a pro-life individual. I don’t like people questioning my integrity.

Rick: I have not just whispered pro life, I have done it on the road as well. He said Newt said keep social issues outside 2010 elections.

Romney: It’s not easy to be profile, I admire Rick Santorum. Romney mentioned all the laws that he vetoed. He said it was tough. He said M.A. pro-life association supported my Governor campaign / Appreciated Ricks record and hopes he reciprocate.

Paul was missed and people wanted him to speak! He said the Law won’t correct the morality of the people, which is basic problem. You need the Government out of that business.

Rick: Paul, you are indirectly referring to me. Paul has right to life voting record of 50%.

Paul (to Rick): You are overly sensitive I wasn’t even thinking about you. Abortion is a violent act. Every other violent act is under state! And don’t say I am not pro life because of the way I opposed laws and how I want the laws to be.

Last Question – Make your case for SC:

Paul: You are known for your respect for Liberty. Liberty benefits every state. Everyone is talking about the debt now. I want to cut a trillion dollars from budget first. Make sure I bring back money.

Newt: Thanks everyone there, includes CNN. Imperative to defeat Barack Obama, calls him most dangerous president of our lifetime. Also we need to have a victory in senate and house. We need a deep change in Washington.

Mitt: Agrees with Ron Paul and Newt. Talks about founding fathers etc. Says Obama is changing the very nature of America. Making us a entitlement society. We need to return to principles on which country is founded. Restore values. Keep America shining.

Rick: I am a total conservative who knows important issues of the day, am the best to take on Obama. I have defeated a democratic incumbent. I come from working class, not just with a plan but also with a character. You don’t need to settle for a moderate.

Varun Reddy.