Not as Super as expected...

Hi friends

The Super Tuesday was indeed super, with each candidate claiming victory. However the waters of the nomination became murkier after this fateful day i.e. 6th March, 2012.

You must have seen Mohit’s reports on the 10 states that went to polls on Super Tuesday. These states had 419 delegates and 18 unpledged delegates. Some of the delegate-rich states include Georgia (76 total delegates), Ohio (66 total delegates) and Tennessee (58 total delegates). Let’s see how the candidates fared in each state. We’ll tackle the states candidate by candidate:

1. Georgia: One of the first states to declare its results, the state of Georgia was supposed to be the one that would push Newt Gingrich ahead, and anything less than a mightily win would remove him from contention once and for all. He was elected by this state to the Congress for 20 years! And he justified it with a big win (47%) of the votes and a huge chunk of the delegates too. Romney (26%) and Santorum (20%) were way behind.

2. Massachusetts: The state of Massachusetts did not mind Mitt Romney calling Michigan his home state, even though it was this state that brought him to the limelight, where he was elected the Republican Governor of a highly liberal-moderate state for 4 years. They gave him a thumping victory, with over 72% of the votes, carrying all of the state’s delegates.

3. Ohio: After reading Mohit’s excellent analysis of the state, you must have realized one thing - No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. And Romney just managed to edge out Santorum in this state – 38% to 37% - a difference of less than 10,000 votes, which is a reflection on how fractured this race has become! Gingrich came in a distant 3^rd with 15% of the votes.

4. Tennessee: Everyone said this race would be close, and would be the most decisive race after Ohio. Rick Santorum carried this state (37%) but Romney (28%) managed to edge out Newt (24%) to secure a strong 2^nd place showing.

5. Oklahoma: This was the 3^rd state that Romney had to do well in order to prove that he can carry these conservative states in the general election. However, Santorum won this state by more than 16,000 votes, beating Romney 34% to 28%, with Gingrich coming a close 3^rd with 27%. The delegates distribution was much more even, and Santorum’s win was more of a psychological boost than a delegate boost.

6. Virginia: The state was very much in the news for the efforts of Ron Paul to make a solid impression here. Since Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum were not present on the Virginia ballot (as they failed to collect 10,000 signatures needed to appear on the ballot), it was expected to be a comfortable win for Mitt Romney However, Ron Paul put up a strong show, and Romney just managed 60% of the overall votes, to Paul’s 40%. However, the bulk of the delegates went to Mitt.

7. Vermont: This was another state that Romney was expected to carry, and he did win it in style, with over 40% of the votes. However, Ron Paul finished a strong 2^nd with 25% of the votes, followed by Santorum with 24% of the votes.

8. Idaho: Backed by a strong Mormon population, Mott Romney won the state of Idaho by a thumping 62%. Santorum and Paul finished 2^nd and 3^rd respectively, but the state was a winner-take-all state. Paul was expected to do much better in this state, as he did a lot of campaigning here. It just did not prove to be enough though.

9. Alaska: The eastern-most state in the USA began its polling very late, and the results were expected to favour Romney. However, former Gov. Sarah Palin felt that the state could go in either direction, as it had something for each candidate. In the end, Romney took 32% of the vote, with Santorum (29%) and Paul (24%) close behind.

10. North Dakota: Another state where Ron Paul was expected to put on a good show proved to be a heart-break for the old geezer. Rock Santorum upstaged POaul winning 40% of the votes to Paul’s 28% and Romney’s 24%

So after a hectic Super Tuesday, it stands at this: Mitt Romney took six states, Rick Santorum took three states, and Newt Gingrich took one state as expected of him, while Ron Paul didn’t take a single state despite his strong showing in many of them.

The delegate count, as of now, should be as follows:

Candidate	GA	MA	OH	TN	OK	VA	VT	ID	AL	ND	Total (ST)	Final Total
MR (187)	21	38	38	16	13	43	9	32	8	7	225	412
RS (93)	3	0	21	29	14	0	4	0	7	11	89	182
NG (30)	52	0	0	10	13	0	0	0	3	2	80	110
RP (24)	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	6	8	21	45
JH (2)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
UP/Ex-Officio/UC (36)	0	3	3	3	3	3	0	0	3	0	18	54

We have seen that the clear winner of Super Tuesday is Mitt Romney, with Rick Santorum coming a distant second. However, the results do point out to a few worrying trends:

"Almost there suckers!"

1. Mitt Romney is not trusted enough by the conservatives, not enough to get their votes, as demonstrated by his losses in Oklahoma and Tennessee, and his very close won in Ohio (mostly by the backing of the vast number of moderates there). He has not been able to consolidate his conservative vote-back, a fact that has repeatedly questioned his re-electability quotient.

2. Rick Santorum has made a strong impression in the conservative states, but has failed to make a dent elsewhere. He is coming a regular 2^nd, not enough to win enough delegates for a chance at the nomination.

"Just not my lucky day"

3. Gingrich is almost done with his campaign. Contrary to what he actually feels, the results made it quite clear that this race is a Rick Santorum vs. Mitt Romney race. It is also quite possible that most of the conservative votes are being divided between Santorum and Gingrich, helping Mitt Romney carry most of the states by a comfortable margin. But with just 2 wins, and a poor showing in the other states, Gingrich may just run out of cash to continue his shot at the presidency.

4. Ron Paul is still fighting it out. He has repeatedly said he is going all the way to the convention, and would like to make as much of an impact as he really can. He is yet to win a state though.

Varun Reddy.

The Juice!

The other states in action on Super Tuesday are Idaho, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Alaska.

Nearly 20 percent of the delegates to the
Republican convention will be chosen on Tuesday night.
And the outcome could from one in which
Mitt Romney seems to have the nomination all but wrapped up to a situation that casts his nomination in doubt.

But no matter what happens, Mr. Romney is likely to remain the favorite to win the nomination, just the way he is to finish with the largest number of delegates from the evening.

On the other hand, both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have a lot on the line as well, quite possibly their survival in the race too. Rick Santorum needs to win Ohio to keep his candidacy alive.

Santorum feels the most pressure in Ohio, where the former senator from Pennsylvania built a lead by highlighting his blue-collar roots but where Romney is now considered to have greater momentum.

And as Newt Gingrich claims that 'He'll carry Georgia decisively' , that would act as a perfect launchpad for his comeback. A week from Super Tuesday, Newt Gingrich might sweep the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. The problem for Gingrich is that even if he does sweep Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, the onus will be on him to prove that he is something more than just a regional candidate — given that his only victory in the race to date was in the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary.

Ron Paul is yet to win a state, but Super Tuesday most probably would change that, as the Texax Rep. should do well in low turnout caucuses in North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho.

From a delegate point of view, Romney is nowhere close to clinching the GOP nomination. What Romney needs is to be able to claim a sort of national victory, winning somewhere in every region of the country. And Tennessee is his best chance to do so.

Lets see what Super Tuesday has in store for us!

Bottomline - Win Ohio and Tennessee, and you have won the Night!


Mohit Dayal

Tennessee - The South Beckons!

Tennessee, with 58 delegates, is one of the most exciting contests this Super Tuesday.

The three-way tie between Mitt Romney, Mr. Gingrich, and Rick Santorum in Tennessee has emerged as one of the biggest symbolic contests of the Republican primary season. A win for Mr. Romney in a bona fide Southern state could mean he is at last making inroads with the evangelical Christian and hard-right voters who've so far been his Achilles' heel.

Only seven public polls have been released in Tennessee over the past month. Rick Santorum held a wide lead in early February, but three telephone surveys conducted over the past few days show Santorum holding remarkably consistent, narrow leads, ranging from 4 to 5 percentage points ahead of Romney. In those polls, Newt Gingrich wins support between 18 and 27 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 8 to 9 percent.

Gingrich needs a win in Tennessee Tuesday and wins in Alabama and Mississippi next week to help carry him through to Texas, where a victory might open the possibility of a brokered national convention.

On the other hand, the symbolism of a Romney win in Tennessee would be dramatic, analysts say. For the first time, Romney could start talking about being a national candidate, having won a contest in all regions of the country.

Bottomline - "Romney could seal the deal if he takes not only Ohio, but Tennessee,” CNN contributor Alex Castellanos.


Mohit Dayal