What about the War?

Ever since the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centers, barring the recent economic downturn, perhaps the most contentious and debatable issue in the USA has been its military presence on foreign soil. Not that it is something alien to this superpower but then the current military presence has several dimensions which currently do, and will continue to in the future, affect greatly, not only the political arrangements in the world but much more significantly, those in the United States of America.


When George W. Bush announced that USA would be invading Afghanistan, the move was essential to pacify the millions of people filled with angst. But today, 11 years after 9/11, that announcement has molded itself into actions of much more profound implications.


Firstly, the USA invading Afghanistan was understandable, but then its invasion of Iraq without a United Nations mandate in its favor smelled foul, for it pointed out the big brother policy of the USA in all its obviousness. The billions of Dollars spent in these wars and the thousands of lives lost may well be a crucial factor in deciding who will be taking the Presidential Oath in January 2013. 
Today, Osama Bin Laden is dead and perhaps what was the last thread of emotional attachment to this war on terror has been lost. More importantly, it has been replaced with an overwhelming desire to feed one’s family, to fulfill one’s needs, a desire which was curtailed to a great degree by the recent economic depression.


Today, when the Chinese economy dictates the fiscal policies of the world, the United States and its President need to sit up and decide what is more important, spending billions in waging wars to ensure its supremacy or to use the same billions to shore up its economy.


Now, Obama has spelt out the plan to bring back troops from Afghanistan and use that money on nation building, on strengthening the economy.


“Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard economic times. It is time to focus on nation-building here at home.” , said Obama, in his speech from the White House East Room, on 22nd June 2011.


Mitt Romney on the other hand has stated that cost will not be a factor in the effort to ensure that USA remains free of any potential military or nuclear threats in the future.


“There will be some who argue it’s too expensive now, we’ve got to bring the troops home right now, or others will say, politically we need to make one decision or another … You don’t make a decision about our involvement in a conflict based on dollars and cents alone...”
- 14 June 2011, New York Times


The condition of the US economy does not make it likely that Romney’s hardlining strategy will be very popular among the popular mass still reeling under the adverse effects of the recession.


Coming to Iran, however, both have said unequivocally that all possible options which might be required to subdue Iran must be kept at hand including military actions. Thus Iran should not be a major factor but the image of Romney that has built up of being someone who is much more likely than Obama to jump into military action might hamper his chances to a great extent.


Finally, it will come down to the question between long term economic growth and stability or the steps to ensure that no other country can potentially ever have a nuclear program in the world. Barack Obama seems to be making the right noises and playing on a much more practical note than the Bush-like opinions of Romney.


And only time shall tell what the American public wants.


Arya Chakrabarty

Refresh!

Hello Friends,

As we look forward to the business end of this Presidential Race, we at R2TWH would like to ensure uninterrupted and in-depth analysis of the 2012 US Presidential Elections. The past couple of months have been hectic, and the fact that the Republican Primaries were done and dusted, with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich pulling out, has resulted in very few posts! .. But as we head into the month of June, we look forward to the Republican and the Democratic Conventions, the running mates of both the sides, and the fierce battle between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The blog will now concentrate on the Presidential fight between the two main contenders, covering relevant issues at the same time as well!


 I would like to introduce all of you to Mr. Arya Chakrabarty, a colleague of mine, who would also be contributing to this blog, along with His excellency Mr. Varun Reddy and yours truly!
We hope to cover these elections with the endeavor to learn, and help other people learn as well!

Happy Blogging!


Mohit Dayal

Rick Santorum Steps Down and Ron Paul might just spring a surprise!

As you must have heard, Rick Santorum stepped down from the race after his losses in Maryland and Wisconsin, to Mitt Romney. He was not on the ballot in Washington D.C. which was won by Mitt Romney too. The media attributed this to his growing concern for his three-year-old daughter, who was diagnosed with Pneumonia and also suffers from a rare genetic condition called Trisomy 18. This departure leaves just Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich as challengers for Mitt Romney in his bid for the nomination, and both of them have not lived upto the hype they've created, or so it seems.

As you can see at this link, which explains the delegate-allocation process in detail, states that have caucuses have not yet allotted their delegates to the candidates - the media numbers are just speculations based on the first stage of the caucus conducted in each stage. As the link mentions, Ron Paul may actually currently be, by some estimates, in 3rd or even 2nd place overall behind Romney and truly seems to be gaining steam as the process continues to unfold. As we can see from the results in Colorado, Republicans elected 21 delegates and 21 alternates on a particular day, and 13 of the 18 winning delegates elected were on the Paul/Santorum unity slate - where supporters of two front-runners united against Mitt Romney's supporters! This was a total shock for the Romney gang, who thought they would find it easy to get elected after Santorum dropped out from the race.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/santorum-delegates-begin-flocking-ron-paul

http://www.collegian.com/index.php/blog/politics/2012/04/santorum_supporters_ensure_ron_pauls_colorado_delegate_coup_catches_attention_of_mainstream_press

Update

Due to unavoidable circumstances, Race2theWhiteHouse was not able to update all its followers on the Presidential Race over the past few weeks. Over the past month, significant events have unfolded in the race to the White House, which has also impacted the landscape of American Politics in various aspects.

A synopsis of the recent developments in the GOP Nomination Process -

1) Sen. Rick Santorum suspended his presidential campaign on 10th April 2012. This came as a surprise to many analysts, as the former Pennsylvania Senator was the sole realistic challenger to Mitt Romney for the Republican Nomination. The announcement came the day after Santorum's 3-year-old daughter Bella was released from the hospital -- her second trip this year. Bella suffers from a rare and often fatal disorder called Trisomy 18.
Rick Santorum's withdrawal from the race has sealed the GOP Nomination for Mitt Romney.

A Better America Begins Tonight.

2) Mitt Romney swept five Republican primaries on April 24, last Tuesday. The former Massachusetts governor won the primaries of Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
Romney has 695 of the 1,144 delegates needed, with Santorum holding 273 delegates, Gingrich 141 and Paul 72. With the GOP nomination only a mere formality now, Mitt Romney can finally focus on the fight with Barack Obama.

3) Newt Gingrich is likely to suspend his Presidential Campaign next week. Sources reckon that he will “more than likely” endorse Romney at that time. It also seems that Newt Gingrich wants to assist GOP efforts to keep the House under party control and flip the Senate away from Democratic control.

Detailed Analysis on all these stories, and much more in the following posts.

We are Back after a hiatus!

Mohit Dayal

Louisiana votes for Santorum

Rick Santorum won the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday by 22 points over Mitt Romney, his closest competitor. Newt Gingrich finished in third place in Louisiana and Ron Paul finished fourth. Rick Santorum finished with 49% of the popular vote, compared to 27% for Mitt Romney.

Its all about The Religion

Religion played a crucial role in the Louisiana Primary, as Santorum won the majority of votes cast by white evangelical/born-again Christians and Catholics as well.

White evangelicals accounted for nearly six-in-ten Louisiana primary voters, and 56% of them voted for Santorum. Mitt Romney received 21% support from the evangelicals, while Newt Gingrich got 16%. Ron Paul received 5% support from this group.

Santorum also won clear victories among both Protestant and Catholic voters in Louisiana. Roughly 53% of the Protestants supported Santorum, more than twice the number who voted for Romney (25%) or Gingrich (16%). And Santorum received almost as much support from Catholics (46%) as he did from Protestants.

The Fix

This primary allocated only 20 of Louisiana's 46 total Republican delegates. The rest of the delegates will be allocated at the state party convention in June.

And since Mitt Romney won more than 25% of the votes, he'll therefore split the delegates.

So, the scoreboard, as of now, reads 568-273 for Romney!

P.S. - Mitt Romney should avoid another Etch-A-Sketch moment!

Mohit Dayal

Results - Illinois and Puerto Rico

Last week saw Illinois and Puerto Rico hold their Republican primaries. Here are the results, and the analysis.

Puerto Rico

Mitt Romney scored an overwhelming win last weekend in Puerto Rico's Republican presidential primary, trouncing rival Rick Santorum. He won all the 20 delegates to the national convention at stake because he prevailed with more than 50 percent of the vote.

The race was primarily focused on the issue of statehood, and Mitt Romney claimed that he would support statehood for Puerto Ricans, while Santorum said English would have to be the official language of the island if it were to join the United States. Clearly, these comments hurt Santorum's prospects in the Caribbean Island. Leading up to the primaries, Oreste Ramos, former state senator, resigned from a list of delegates backing Santorum following his comments.

Illinois

Mitt Romney comfortably won the Illinois Republican presidential primary securing 47% of the votes. Rick Santorum finished second, but the gap between Romney and Santorum was the real deal. Santorum could manage only 35% of the votes, a gap of more than 12%!

And Rick Santorum has more to worry about, as exit polls released by CNN revealed that Romney edged him among Protestant and Catholic voters, (45-38 and 53-30), reflecting the impact of the former Massachusetts Governor $3 million week-long ad blitz on Santorum’s core support demographics.

Ron Paul edged past Newt Gingrich (9% to 8%) to come in third.

The result of the open primary will see Romney acquiring another 41 new delegates, taking his total tally of delegates to 563, 300 more than Santorum’s 263. Compounding the double-digit popular-vote loss, Santorum was already running at a disadvantage even before voting began after his campaign’s failure to register his candidacy in four of the state’s Congre

ssional districts, an advance loss of ten delegates.

The Maths

Romney now leads Santorum 563 delegates to 263 delegates. Romney is now almost exactly halfway to the 1,144 delegates he would need to clinch the nomination. He needs to win about 46 percent of the available delegates in the remaining two dozen contests.

On the other hand, Santorum, who is 300 delegates behind Romney, would have to win more than two-thirds of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. The climb to Mt.1144 just got steeper for Santorum after his defeat in Illinois and Puerto Rico.

The Game

After being routed by Romney in the Illinois primary earlier this week, the Santorum campaign would like to revive itself in the state of Louisiana.However, The Romney campaign will now begin to make noises about the fact that now is the time for Santorum to step aside, 'for the sake of the party'.

Romney's thumping victory may also possibly increase the pressure on Newt Gingrich to withdraw from the race. His campaign coffers are now running a deficit, and his last-place finish in Illinois will certainly not trigger a sudden spike in contributions. However, Newt Gingrich must be banking on the Louisiana primary this Saturday to rescue his rapidly waning campaign. Polls show that both Santorum and Newt are leading Romney in the state.

For Romney, both the Illinois and Puerto Rico primaries have given him a breather after Super Tuesday, and has placed him in a commanding position to clinch the candidacy over the next three months. Although its a race too early to call, but Romney seems to have rejuvenated his campaign and the spark, which was missing for some time, seems to be back!

P.S. - Illinois might well have been the primary where Mitt Romney emerged from his own shadow.

Mohit Dayal

Why is Newt Gingrich still in the race?

The biggest question in the last few weeks in current Republican race to become the next US President has been this: “Why is Newt Gingrich still in the race?” After Santorum surged to victories in the Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas primaries, calls have got stronger for Newt Gingrich to leave the race and endorse Rick Santorum in order to make the race more even and balanced. But we have not heard of any signs of giving-up from this eccentric, former House speaker from Georgia.

"Not gonna give up yet!"

A few days ago, there was an interesting piece in the Guardian talking about the impact on the race, if Newt Gingrich exits the race. It assumed, for the sake of argument, that Gingrich voters go to Santorum on the order of two-to-one, and calculated how it would impact the delegate allotment in the states yet to vote. The article concluded that any change in the candidate line-up seems unlikely to shake up the race now, and that a Romney victory is well assured, irrespective of the presence/absence of Gingrich in the race.

But the Red State argues that even though Romney is still the likely nominee, but with Gingrich in the race Romney wins a plurality of the delegates and the votes and that any “objective observer” would say that the only chance there is to stop Romney lies in a united conservative base. The rationale is that most of Romney’s wins are coming when either there is a strong home state like advantage (New Hampshire, Massachusetts, or one of the states that have a heavy Mormon populace built in), and there are more people voting against Romney than there is voting for him elsewhere!

Because of certain factors, Gingrich still has an outside chance at the nomination. He has a pan-American appeal, does well in Debates, and has a eccentric, yet charismatic personality. However, he needs to start winning some states, starting with Louisiana (24^th March) For the Speaker, there is no better place to start than Louisiana, a state on which Gingrich plans to focus more than either Romney or Santorum. A win there can prove to be a boost for strong showing in Texas and Florida too. In fact, I feel that even Fox News is supporting his candidature. Also, Newt Gingrich believes that his votes would in fact help Romney and not Santorum, and he doesn’t want to hand over the nomination to Romney on a platter.

But it is not going to be an easy task. Santorum leads the latest polls in the state with 25% of the votes followed by 21% for Romney and 20% for Gingrich. One of the reasons why Gingrich has been attacking Santorum right from the very beginning is that he needs a majority of the conservatives to vote for him. A win here would be a sure boost in the arm of his campaign.

As we’ve mentioned before, Romney’s campaign has fallen back on the “delegate math” to show the electability of their candidate.  Also, CBS puts Mitt Romney’s situation brilliantly as thus in this article that also speaks about the qualities of Santorum as a Presidential candidate, and on Newt hurting his chances:

“Mitt Romney, who came in third in both states (Alabama and Mississippi), is approaching the qualities of some cursed mythological figure who gets stronger on the outside while his insides decay: With each contest, Romney gains delegates but appears to get weaker”.

Personal Opinion: Mitt Romney might have negotiated a secret deal with New Gingrich to keep him in the race, and might have offered him the Vice-Presidential nomination, or perhaps a cabinet berth – although the latter explanation that “there's just nothing else Newt could be doing with his time that's more fun than running for president. After all, Gingrich does appeal to the conservatives, and he might be look good on the ballot J What adds to my conviction (that he has nothing better to do) is the lame technical excuses he’s making for giving reasons why he is still in the race.

P.S. Politic365 has a humourous take on why Newt Gingrich is still in the race J do check it out when you can J

Varun Reddy.