Why is Newt Gingrich still in the race?

The biggest question in the last few weeks in current Republican race to become the next US President has been this: “Why is Newt Gingrich still in the race?” After Santorum surged to victories in the Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas primaries, calls have got stronger for Newt Gingrich to leave the race and endorse Rick Santorum in order to make the race more even and balanced. But we have not heard of any signs of giving-up from this eccentric, former House speaker from Georgia.

"Not gonna give up yet!"

A few days ago, there was an interesting piece in the Guardian talking about the impact on the race, if Newt Gingrich exits the race. It assumed, for the sake of argument, that Gingrich voters go to Santorum on the order of two-to-one, and calculated how it would impact the delegate allotment in the states yet to vote. The article concluded that any change in the candidate line-up seems unlikely to shake up the race now, and that a Romney victory is well assured, irrespective of the presence/absence of Gingrich in the race.

But the Red State argues that even though Romney is still the likely nominee, but with Gingrich in the race Romney wins a plurality of the delegates and the votes and that any “objective observer” would say that the only chance there is to stop Romney lies in a united conservative base. The rationale is that most of Romney’s wins are coming when either there is a strong home state like advantage (New Hampshire, Massachusetts, or one of the states that have a heavy Mormon populace built in), and there are more people voting against Romney than there is voting for him elsewhere!

Because of certain factors, Gingrich still has an outside chance at the nomination. He has a pan-American appeal, does well in Debates, and has a eccentric, yet charismatic personality. However, he needs to start winning some states, starting with Louisiana (24^th March) For the Speaker, there is no better place to start than Louisiana, a state on which Gingrich plans to focus more than either Romney or Santorum. A win there can prove to be a boost for strong showing in Texas and Florida too. In fact, I feel that even Fox News is supporting his candidature. Also, Newt Gingrich believes that his votes would in fact help Romney and not Santorum, and he doesn’t want to hand over the nomination to Romney on a platter.

But it is not going to be an easy task. Santorum leads the latest polls in the state with 25% of the votes followed by 21% for Romney and 20% for Gingrich. One of the reasons why Gingrich has been attacking Santorum right from the very beginning is that he needs a majority of the conservatives to vote for him. A win here would be a sure boost in the arm of his campaign.

As we’ve mentioned before, Romney’s campaign has fallen back on the “delegate math” to show the electability of their candidate.  Also, CBS puts Mitt Romney’s situation brilliantly as thus in this article that also speaks about the qualities of Santorum as a Presidential candidate, and on Newt hurting his chances:

“Mitt Romney, who came in third in both states (Alabama and Mississippi), is approaching the qualities of some cursed mythological figure who gets stronger on the outside while his insides decay: With each contest, Romney gains delegates but appears to get weaker”.

Personal Opinion: Mitt Romney might have negotiated a secret deal with New Gingrich to keep him in the race, and might have offered him the Vice-Presidential nomination, or perhaps a cabinet berth – although the latter explanation that “there's just nothing else Newt could be doing with his time that's more fun than running for president. After all, Gingrich does appeal to the conservatives, and he might be look good on the ballot J What adds to my conviction (that he has nothing better to do) is the lame technical excuses he’s making for giving reasons why he is still in the race.

P.S. Politic365 has a humourous take on why Newt Gingrich is still in the race J do check it out when you can J

Varun Reddy.

And Santorum surges on…

After his resounding win at Kansas, Santorum arrived at the mini Super-Tuesday (13^th March, 2012) with a lot of hope and confidence. Three states -- Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii -- and American Samoa went to polls that day, and they had a combined total of 119 delegates: Alabama (50), American Samoa (9), Hawaii (20) and Mississippi (40). But it was not the numbers that mattered anymore, at least not for the Santorum camp. The wins mattered, and they mattered a lot.

"Republicans, why y u no vote for Mitt 

Romney like my ads say you should?"

The polls in Mississippi showed a tight race between the top-three contenders. It was an important race for all the three candidates – Mitt Romney wanted to show he can carry the Southern States in the general elections, Santorum wanted to prove that he is the only viable conservative candidate in fray, and Gingrich wanted to show he can still win outside his home-turf states of South Carolina and Georgia. In the end, it was a close race, in which Santorum came out on top with 33% of the votes, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 31% each. Ron Paul came a distant 4^th with just 4% of the votes. However, the delegates were evenly divided between the top-three candidates, thereby neutralizing the effect of the win for Santorum. The result in Alabama was no less different, with Santorum winning the state with 35% of the votes, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 29% each, Paul coming a distant 4^th at 5%. The delegate share was more skewed that the one in Mississippi though.

The results in American Samoa and Hawaii went on expected lines, with Mitt Romney winning both by a comfortable margin. With that, the current delegate count (as per our estimates) happens to be:

	Delegates so far	AL	MS	AS	HI	Total Delegates
Mitt Romney	412	11	12	6	9	450
Rick Santorum	182	18	13	0	3	216
Newt Gingrich	110	12	12	0	0	134
Ron Paul	45	0	0	0	3	48
UP/EO/UC*	38*	9	3	3	3	56

* Unpledged/Ex-Officio/Uncommitted

What these results (and the ones in Kansas) did was to change the tone of Mitt Romney’s campaign. So far, the Romney campaign has emphasized on three factors regarding their candidate: 1) Electability and 2) Winning streak and 3) Appeal among the larger Republican base. With 2) and 3) being ripped apart to shreds by Santorum’s surge (and also the possibility of Gingrich taking away his votes), the Romney camp has shifted to “he can win the required number of delegates” stance, which is highly defensive in nature. Santorum has managed to snatch many victories in the states he was expected to win well, but each state has its own way of allotting delegates, and this puts a dent in his winning count.

A few more states are up for election next week. Meanwhile, we shall try to see why Gingrich is not giving up that easily, and also on some of the issues that these candidates differ in.

Varun Reddy.

Sharing the spoils of a low-key Saturday...

In what turned out to be a low-key, yet an important Saturday for the Republican primaries, Rick Santorum won just 1 of the 4 regions that went to the polls on 10^th March, 2012, while Romney won the remaining 3 by huge margins, the 3^rd by a process that is both controversial and funny at the same time J

"Suck on that Romney!"

But the lone win was enough to keep the Santorum camp happy and upbeat, as it was the state of Kansas, very much a Republican state – both the senators, all the 4 congressmen, the Governor and the Lt. Governor are all Republicans. Mainline Protestant, Evangelical Protestant, and Catholic are the three most populous religious groups here. No wonder Rick Santorum stormed to a victory here, getting over 51% of the vote. Mitt Romney came a distant second with 21% of the vote, which was enough to cross the threshold of 20% votes required to garner some delegates in the process. Gingrich and Paul came 3^rd and 4^th respectively.

However, Northern Mariana Islands and Guam – which do not have a say in the General Election but do have a say in the nominating process – voted heavily in favour of Mitt Romney, who carried all the 18 delegates available from these two regions.

Before we move on to explain what happened in the Virgin Islands, we will define two terms:

1. Pledged Delegate: A pledged delegate is elected or chosen on the state or local level with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the convention. However, pledged delegates are not actually bound to vote for the candidate. Candidates are allowed on a state-by-state basis to review the lists of delegates who have pledged their support and can delete anyone whose support they consider unreliable.

2. Bound Delegate: A pledged delegate who is actually bound to vote for the candidate they are chosen to represent is a bound delegate.

According to “The Huffington Post”, the RNC (Republican National Committee) does not count delegates from states like Iowa in its total. The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses -- eventually declared for Santorum -- were given huge symbolic importance and played a big role in showing who the party's voters preferred, but did not officially allocate any of the state's 28 delegates to the national convention. Many caucus states are the same way. The role of delegates is to go to the party's national convention and cast their ballot for a presidential candidate.

The United States Virgin Islands Republican caucuses are quite hilarious – they vote of the delegates instead of the candidates themselves! The top six vote receivers became the final delegates.

The candidates included six delegates declaring for Paul, three for Romney, 2 for Gingrich, 2 for Santorum and 9 that had not declared for any candidate. Of all the votes, the plurality of the vote (29%) went to the six delegates of Ron Paul. However, the Romney supporters votes were more focused and concentrated compared to those for Ron Paul, whose votes were more evenly spread among the candidates. The Romney-ites voted in a bloc, and all their three candidates ended up in the top-6. The uncommitted delegate pledged to vote for Mitt Romney, who also had the support of the 3 Super Delegates from these islands. So effectively, Paul won the vote count (29%), but Romney ran away with 7 delegates compared to Ron Paul, who had to be content with just 1 delegate.

With this addition, the new delegate tally is as follows:

	Delegates so far	Guam	Virgin Islands	Northern Marianas	Kansas	Total Delegates
Mitt Romney	412	6	7	9	7	441
Rick Santorum	182	0	0	0	33	215
Newt Gingrich	110	0	0	0	0	110
Ron Paul	45	0	1	0	0	46
Unpledged/Ex-Officio/Uncommitted	38*	0	1	0	0	39

* Jon Huntsman tally of 2 delegates have been added to the “Uncommitted” column because he withdrew his nomination from the race quite a long time ago

Strange are the ways of the mighty and the ignorant. Stay tuned for the results from more Southern States…

Varun Reddy.

The Wyoming Caucus

"Phew, I finally won that state!"

After a long fought caucus spanning 20 days, the state of Wyoming, divided its 26 pledged delegates among all the candidates. Not surprisingly, Mitt Romney won the state of Wyoming with 39% of the vote, followed by Santorum (32%), Ron Paul (21%) and Newt Gingrich (8%). The delegate count after the state of Wyoming was as follows, with 17 delegates unpledged and 1 delegate uncommitted.

Candidate	Delegates so far	Wyoming	Total
Mitt Romney	180	7	187
Rick Santorum	90	3	93
Newt Gingrich	30	0	30
Ron Paul	23	1	24
Jon Huntsman*	2	0	2
Unpledged / Ex-officio	18	17+1	36

We had to delay the results of Super Tuesday because of the delay in the reporting of the results of the Wyoming caucuses. We just wanted to keep things accurate you know J Super Tuesday results follow.

Varun Reddy.

The Super Tuesday!

The day is 6th March 2012. The place is 10 states across The United States of America.

And the target is The GOP Nomination for the four candidates left in the fray.

Yes. Super Tuesday night not be all that Super, since it has been slimmed down to half its 2008 size. But it sure is one with the biggest payout of the Republican presidential primaries.

It could end the show for Newt Gingrich, or lend more credibility to Raun Paul(after his impressive show in Washington).
And it is an opportunity for both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum to score a decisive advantage over the other.

With more than 400 delegates at stake, the Super Tuesday contests offer a significant boost in the quest for the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the GOP presidential nomination.

The states voting Tuesday are Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia and Wyoming.

As of now, Mitt Romney leads the race for the GOP nomination, with 180 delegates. Rick Santorum is running second with 90 delegates, followed by Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

State-Wise Analysis in the following posts!

Mohit Dayal

The race so far...

Hi friends

Sorry for the missing updates. Both the moderators were busy in the last few weeks. Here is a round-up of what happened in the last month:

1. Florida Primaries (January 31)

In what is considered a swing state, Mitt Romney held his nerves against a resurgent Newt Gingrich to win 46% of the votes and win all the delegates in a closed primary in Florida. Newt Gingrich came a distant second with 32% of the votes.  The background data can be found here.

2. Nevada Caucuses (February 4)

As expected, Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses by a huge margin, securing more than 50% of the votes in this closed caucus, picking 14 delegates on the way. Gingrich and Paul stood a distant second and third, with Santorum giving a dismal performance. The result was expected because of the huge Mormon contribution in this state.

3. Mini Super Tuesday - Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (February 7)

One of them could end up as the eventual
nominee after Super Tuesday :) 

The race took a dramatic turn on what turned out to be a great Tuesday for the uber-conservative Rick Santorum. After his tall claims of being the only true-conservative on the block did not yield positive results in many states after his surprise win in Iowa, Santorum was looking for redemption – and he got not one, but three redemptions, one of which was quite shocking!

In 2008, Mitt Romney had won Minnesota and Missouri quite convincingly with 41% and 60% of the votes respectively. But what he received in 2012 was quite a huge shock. Rick Santorum carried both these states with 45% and 55% respectively, with Romney coming in the 2^nd place in Minnesota, but falling behind Ron Paul in Missouri to 3^rd place. However, for Missouri, the primary election will not determine which delegates will be sent to the national convention; this will instead be determined by the caucuses in March. However, Santorum’s win was quite a boost for his campaign.

Colorado was not expected to be a cakewalk for Mitt Romney, as he was 3^rd in 2008. John McCain prevailed over Mike Huckabee in 2008, with Mitt Romney coming a close third. However, with Newt Gingrich not contesting the ballot (due to a missed deadline), the conservatives rallied behind Santorum to give him a convincing 40% to Mitt Romney’s 35% victory.

4. Maine Caucuses (February 11)

In a closely fought race, Mitt Romney edged out Ron Paul in the Maine Caucuses 39% to 35%. Ron Paul picked up 10 delegates, while Romney picked up 11. Mitt Romney had won more than 51% of the votes back in 2008, and had

5. The Litmus Test states – Michigan and Arizona (February 28)

Michigan and Arizona were the two states Mitt Romney needed to win to assert his dominance over the race, and he did it in style! He surpassed his vote %age count of 2008 to romp home in Michigan by winning 41% of the votes, although Rick Santorum was a close second. Arizona, won by John McCain in 2008, was a cake walk for Mitt Romney as he won 47% of the vote to take all the delegates from this state.

6. Wyoming – the complications mount (February 29)

Wyoming, a state with a total of 29 delegates, has three different steps in its delegate allocation process. Between February 9 and February 29, individual Wyoming counties hold caucuses. Caucus-goers cast ballots in a non-binding presidential preference vote. Then, county conventions are held between March 6 and March 10. Finally, in mid-April, the state GOP holds a convention. Of the total 29 delegates, 26 are tied to the caucus and convention process. Three delegates are unpledged RNC member delegates. The straw poll showed Mitt Romney as the clear favourite to win here.

7. Washington State (March 3)

Although Mitt Romney came 3^rd in the elections held in 2008, he scored a decisive victory in 2012 winning 37.6% of the vote. Ron Paul edged out Rick Santorum 25% to 24% for the 2^nd spot.

The final tally (not counting Wyoming) is as follows: (AP estimates)

Candidate	IA	NH	SC	FL	NV	CO	MN	ME	AZ	MI	WA	Total
Mitt Romney	12	7	2	50	14	9	0	11	29	16	30	180
Rick Santorum	13	0	0	0	3	18	37	0	0	14	5	90
Newt Gingrich	0	0	23	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	30
Ron Paul	0	3	0	0	5	0	0	10	0	0	5	23
Jon Huntsman*	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Unpledged / Ex-officio	3	0	0	0	0	6	3	3	0	0	3	18

* He's not in the race anymore

Mitt Romney has a clear lead so far but his nearest rival can catch up on Super Tuesday i.e. 6^th March, 2012. What is that you might ask? Well Mohit has the briefing in the next report coming soon.

Varun Reddy.