This Republican presidential race has had more than its share of surprises and unexpected twists. But Nevada seems to be a simpler affair!
Mitt Romney’s opponents will have it tough in Nevada.And it’s largely because of Romney’s Mormon religion.
While Romney’s faith has rightly been described as a liability in previous states — most notably Iowa and South Carolina, where evangelical Christians have balked at supporting Romney — it’s hard to call it anything but a trump card in Nevada.
In the 2008 Nevada caucuses, Romney won the state going away, 51 percent to 14 percent over second-place Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas). And the biggest reason for Romney’s big margin was Mormons.
Despite comprising about 7 percent of the state’s population, they made up more than one-quarter of the GOP caucus electorate, and entrance polls showed Romney winning a stunning 95 percent of their vote.
In other words, half of Romney’s vote in Nevada came from fellow Mormons, and he could have won the state’s caucuses even if he hadn’t gotten a single vote from anyone else.
As Mormons vote in unison and turn out in large numbers, a state like Nevada should be a cakewalk for Romney.
Poll so far shows that Romney will likely win Nevada by a large margin.
After Nevada, even Arizona, whose primary is the next major contest after Nevada’s caucuses (following some less-prominent caucus states next week), has a similar-sized Mormon population.
So, the very thing that arguably cost Romney 10-plus percent of the vote in Iowa and South Carolina is likely to help him win about that much in two of the most important contests in February.
Mohit Dayal
