Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama.

With the Presidential Elections now exactly 5 months away, the battle lines have been drawn. Mitt Romney will challenge Barack Obama on November 4th, as he clinches the Republican nomination officially after reaching the magic figure of 1144!

So the big question now is, Will Mitt Romney be able to pose a realistic threat to Obama's re-election? Will Mitt Romney be able to pose a stiff challenge to one of the most charismatic leaders of the modern era? .. Well, if you all you folks out there still believe that Barack Obama's re-election is just a formality, as was the notion a few months back, you might well be up for a surprise. According to recent polls, Mitt Romney is giving Barack Obama more than a fight, and it sure does look like a tight finish is in the offing.

Looking back in history, the standard to which all close elections are judged is the 2000 race between Al-Gore and Bush. In that election, Gore won 50,999,897 votes (48.38 percent) to Bush’s 50,456,002 votes (47.87 percent). Bush won thanks to a 271 to 267 electoral vote margin over Gore.

The Presidential Race 4 years later, between Bush and John Kerry was keenly contested too. And it’s entirely possible that the Obama-Romney race this fall will equal or even eclipse the closeness of the 2004 contest between Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. For the record, Bush took 62,040,610 votes (50.73 percent) to Kerry’s 59,028,439 (48.27 percent) in that election and were it not for Bush’s 118,000-vote margin in Ohio, Kerry would have been elected president.

When all of the votes are counted on Nov. 6, the 2012 election might look a lot more like 2004 or even 2000 than it does 2008. And with such a small margin expected, little things can make a very big difference.

In a blowout presidential election, a few large issues dominate. In a tight election, a range of smaller concerns, important to strategic constituencies in battleground states, can end up being crucial. A tight election can sometimes turn out to be an aggregate result of many crucial and swing states.

President Obama may have hoped for a decisive reelection victory, styled on Ronald Reagan’s in 1984. At best, he will return to the White House in the manner of George W. Bush in 2004 — after a scrambling fight across the Electoral College map. For Mitt Romney, its an opportunity of a lifetime. As of now, he seems to be the right person, at the right time, at the right place.

They say that 5 Months is a long long time in Politics. I'm sure we are yet to see many twists and turns in this historic election. All I would say is that It would be fun to cover these elections with all of you!

And as Ravi Shastri would say, I hope this one goes Down to the Wire!

Mohit Dayal

What about the War?

Ever since the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centers, barring the recent economic downturn, perhaps the most contentious and debatable issue in the USA has been its military presence on foreign soil. Not that it is something alien to this superpower but then the current military presence has several dimensions which currently do, and will continue to in the future, affect greatly, not only the political arrangements in the world but much more significantly, those in the United States of America.


When George W. Bush announced that USA would be invading Afghanistan, the move was essential to pacify the millions of people filled with angst. But today, 11 years after 9/11, that announcement has molded itself into actions of much more profound implications.


Firstly, the USA invading Afghanistan was understandable, but then its invasion of Iraq without a United Nations mandate in its favor smelled foul, for it pointed out the big brother policy of the USA in all its obviousness. The billions of Dollars spent in these wars and the thousands of lives lost may well be a crucial factor in deciding who will be taking the Presidential Oath in January 2013. 
Today, Osama Bin Laden is dead and perhaps what was the last thread of emotional attachment to this war on terror has been lost. More importantly, it has been replaced with an overwhelming desire to feed one’s family, to fulfill one’s needs, a desire which was curtailed to a great degree by the recent economic depression.


Today, when the Chinese economy dictates the fiscal policies of the world, the United States and its President need to sit up and decide what is more important, spending billions in waging wars to ensure its supremacy or to use the same billions to shore up its economy.


Now, Obama has spelt out the plan to bring back troops from Afghanistan and use that money on nation building, on strengthening the economy.


“Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard economic times. It is time to focus on nation-building here at home.” , said Obama, in his speech from the White House East Room, on 22nd June 2011.


Mitt Romney on the other hand has stated that cost will not be a factor in the effort to ensure that USA remains free of any potential military or nuclear threats in the future.


“There will be some who argue it’s too expensive now, we’ve got to bring the troops home right now, or others will say, politically we need to make one decision or another … You don’t make a decision about our involvement in a conflict based on dollars and cents alone...”
- 14 June 2011, New York Times


The condition of the US economy does not make it likely that Romney’s hardlining strategy will be very popular among the popular mass still reeling under the adverse effects of the recession.


Coming to Iran, however, both have said unequivocally that all possible options which might be required to subdue Iran must be kept at hand including military actions. Thus Iran should not be a major factor but the image of Romney that has built up of being someone who is much more likely than Obama to jump into military action might hamper his chances to a great extent.


Finally, it will come down to the question between long term economic growth and stability or the steps to ensure that no other country can potentially ever have a nuclear program in the world. Barack Obama seems to be making the right noises and playing on a much more practical note than the Bush-like opinions of Romney.


And only time shall tell what the American public wants.


Arya Chakrabarty

Update

Due to unavoidable circumstances, Race2theWhiteHouse was not able to update all its followers on the Presidential Race over the past few weeks. Over the past month, significant events have unfolded in the race to the White House, which has also impacted the landscape of American Politics in various aspects.

A synopsis of the recent developments in the GOP Nomination Process -

1) Sen. Rick Santorum suspended his presidential campaign on 10th April 2012. This came as a surprise to many analysts, as the former Pennsylvania Senator was the sole realistic challenger to Mitt Romney for the Republican Nomination. The announcement came the day after Santorum's 3-year-old daughter Bella was released from the hospital -- her second trip this year. Bella suffers from a rare and often fatal disorder called Trisomy 18.
Rick Santorum's withdrawal from the race has sealed the GOP Nomination for Mitt Romney.

A Better America Begins Tonight.

2) Mitt Romney swept five Republican primaries on April 24, last Tuesday. The former Massachusetts governor won the primaries of Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
Romney has 695 of the 1,144 delegates needed, with Santorum holding 273 delegates, Gingrich 141 and Paul 72. With the GOP nomination only a mere formality now, Mitt Romney can finally focus on the fight with Barack Obama.

3) Newt Gingrich is likely to suspend his Presidential Campaign next week. Sources reckon that he will “more than likely” endorse Romney at that time. It also seems that Newt Gingrich wants to assist GOP efforts to keep the House under party control and flip the Senate away from Democratic control.

Detailed Analysis on all these stories, and much more in the following posts.

We are Back after a hiatus!

Mohit Dayal

Louisiana votes for Santorum

Rick Santorum won the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday by 22 points over Mitt Romney, his closest competitor. Newt Gingrich finished in third place in Louisiana and Ron Paul finished fourth. Rick Santorum finished with 49% of the popular vote, compared to 27% for Mitt Romney.

Its all about The Religion

Religion played a crucial role in the Louisiana Primary, as Santorum won the majority of votes cast by white evangelical/born-again Christians and Catholics as well.

White evangelicals accounted for nearly six-in-ten Louisiana primary voters, and 56% of them voted for Santorum. Mitt Romney received 21% support from the evangelicals, while Newt Gingrich got 16%. Ron Paul received 5% support from this group.

Santorum also won clear victories among both Protestant and Catholic voters in Louisiana. Roughly 53% of the Protestants supported Santorum, more than twice the number who voted for Romney (25%) or Gingrich (16%). And Santorum received almost as much support from Catholics (46%) as he did from Protestants.

The Fix

This primary allocated only 20 of Louisiana's 46 total Republican delegates. The rest of the delegates will be allocated at the state party convention in June.

And since Mitt Romney won more than 25% of the votes, he'll therefore split the delegates.

So, the scoreboard, as of now, reads 568-273 for Romney!

P.S. - Mitt Romney should avoid another Etch-A-Sketch moment!

Mohit Dayal

And Santorum surges on…

After his resounding win at Kansas, Santorum arrived at the mini Super-Tuesday (13^th March, 2012) with a lot of hope and confidence. Three states -- Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii -- and American Samoa went to polls that day, and they had a combined total of 119 delegates: Alabama (50), American Samoa (9), Hawaii (20) and Mississippi (40). But it was not the numbers that mattered anymore, at least not for the Santorum camp. The wins mattered, and they mattered a lot.

"Republicans, why y u no vote for Mitt 

Romney like my ads say you should?"

The polls in Mississippi showed a tight race between the top-three contenders. It was an important race for all the three candidates – Mitt Romney wanted to show he can carry the Southern States in the general elections, Santorum wanted to prove that he is the only viable conservative candidate in fray, and Gingrich wanted to show he can still win outside his home-turf states of South Carolina and Georgia. In the end, it was a close race, in which Santorum came out on top with 33% of the votes, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 31% each. Ron Paul came a distant 4^th with just 4% of the votes. However, the delegates were evenly divided between the top-three candidates, thereby neutralizing the effect of the win for Santorum. The result in Alabama was no less different, with Santorum winning the state with 35% of the votes, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 29% each, Paul coming a distant 4^th at 5%. The delegate share was more skewed that the one in Mississippi though.

The results in American Samoa and Hawaii went on expected lines, with Mitt Romney winning both by a comfortable margin. With that, the current delegate count (as per our estimates) happens to be:

	Delegates so far	AL	MS	AS	HI	Total Delegates
Mitt Romney	412	11	12	6	9	450
Rick Santorum	182	18	13	0	3	216
Newt Gingrich	110	12	12	0	0	134
Ron Paul	45	0	0	0	3	48
UP/EO/UC*	38*	9	3	3	3	56

* Unpledged/Ex-Officio/Uncommitted

What these results (and the ones in Kansas) did was to change the tone of Mitt Romney’s campaign. So far, the Romney campaign has emphasized on three factors regarding their candidate: 1) Electability and 2) Winning streak and 3) Appeal among the larger Republican base. With 2) and 3) being ripped apart to shreds by Santorum’s surge (and also the possibility of Gingrich taking away his votes), the Romney camp has shifted to “he can win the required number of delegates” stance, which is highly defensive in nature. Santorum has managed to snatch many victories in the states he was expected to win well, but each state has its own way of allotting delegates, and this puts a dent in his winning count.

A few more states are up for election next week. Meanwhile, we shall try to see why Gingrich is not giving up that easily, and also on some of the issues that these candidates differ in.

Varun Reddy.

Not as Super as expected...

Hi friends

The Super Tuesday was indeed super, with each candidate claiming victory. However the waters of the nomination became murkier after this fateful day i.e. 6th March, 2012.

You must have seen Mohit’s reports on the 10 states that went to polls on Super Tuesday. These states had 419 delegates and 18 unpledged delegates. Some of the delegate-rich states include Georgia (76 total delegates), Ohio (66 total delegates) and Tennessee (58 total delegates). Let’s see how the candidates fared in each state. We’ll tackle the states candidate by candidate:

1. Georgia: One of the first states to declare its results, the state of Georgia was supposed to be the one that would push Newt Gingrich ahead, and anything less than a mightily win would remove him from contention once and for all. He was elected by this state to the Congress for 20 years! And he justified it with a big win (47%) of the votes and a huge chunk of the delegates too. Romney (26%) and Santorum (20%) were way behind.

2. Massachusetts: The state of Massachusetts did not mind Mitt Romney calling Michigan his home state, even though it was this state that brought him to the limelight, where he was elected the Republican Governor of a highly liberal-moderate state for 4 years. They gave him a thumping victory, with over 72% of the votes, carrying all of the state’s delegates.

3. Ohio: After reading Mohit’s excellent analysis of the state, you must have realized one thing - No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. And Romney just managed to edge out Santorum in this state – 38% to 37% - a difference of less than 10,000 votes, which is a reflection on how fractured this race has become! Gingrich came in a distant 3^rd with 15% of the votes.

4. Tennessee: Everyone said this race would be close, and would be the most decisive race after Ohio. Rick Santorum carried this state (37%) but Romney (28%) managed to edge out Newt (24%) to secure a strong 2^nd place showing.

5. Oklahoma: This was the 3^rd state that Romney had to do well in order to prove that he can carry these conservative states in the general election. However, Santorum won this state by more than 16,000 votes, beating Romney 34% to 28%, with Gingrich coming a close 3^rd with 27%. The delegates distribution was much more even, and Santorum’s win was more of a psychological boost than a delegate boost.

6. Virginia: The state was very much in the news for the efforts of Ron Paul to make a solid impression here. Since Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum were not present on the Virginia ballot (as they failed to collect 10,000 signatures needed to appear on the ballot), it was expected to be a comfortable win for Mitt Romney However, Ron Paul put up a strong show, and Romney just managed 60% of the overall votes, to Paul’s 40%. However, the bulk of the delegates went to Mitt.

7. Vermont: This was another state that Romney was expected to carry, and he did win it in style, with over 40% of the votes. However, Ron Paul finished a strong 2^nd with 25% of the votes, followed by Santorum with 24% of the votes.

8. Idaho: Backed by a strong Mormon population, Mott Romney won the state of Idaho by a thumping 62%. Santorum and Paul finished 2^nd and 3^rd respectively, but the state was a winner-take-all state. Paul was expected to do much better in this state, as he did a lot of campaigning here. It just did not prove to be enough though.

9. Alaska: The eastern-most state in the USA began its polling very late, and the results were expected to favour Romney. However, former Gov. Sarah Palin felt that the state could go in either direction, as it had something for each candidate. In the end, Romney took 32% of the vote, with Santorum (29%) and Paul (24%) close behind.

10. North Dakota: Another state where Ron Paul was expected to put on a good show proved to be a heart-break for the old geezer. Rock Santorum upstaged POaul winning 40% of the votes to Paul’s 28% and Romney’s 24%

So after a hectic Super Tuesday, it stands at this: Mitt Romney took six states, Rick Santorum took three states, and Newt Gingrich took one state as expected of him, while Ron Paul didn’t take a single state despite his strong showing in many of them.

The delegate count, as of now, should be as follows:

Candidate	GA	MA	OH	TN	OK	VA	VT	ID	AL	ND	Total (ST)	Final Total
MR (187)	21	38	38	16	13	43	9	32	8	7	225	412
RS (93)	3	0	21	29	14	0	4	0	7	11	89	182
NG (30)	52	0	0	10	13	0	0	0	3	2	80	110
RP (24)	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	6	8	21	45
JH (2)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
UP/Ex-Officio/UC (36)	0	3	3	3	3	3	0	0	3	0	18	54

We have seen that the clear winner of Super Tuesday is Mitt Romney, with Rick Santorum coming a distant second. However, the results do point out to a few worrying trends:

"Almost there suckers!"

1. Mitt Romney is not trusted enough by the conservatives, not enough to get their votes, as demonstrated by his losses in Oklahoma and Tennessee, and his very close won in Ohio (mostly by the backing of the vast number of moderates there). He has not been able to consolidate his conservative vote-back, a fact that has repeatedly questioned his re-electability quotient.

2. Rick Santorum has made a strong impression in the conservative states, but has failed to make a dent elsewhere. He is coming a regular 2^nd, not enough to win enough delegates for a chance at the nomination.

"Just not my lucky day"

3. Gingrich is almost done with his campaign. Contrary to what he actually feels, the results made it quite clear that this race is a Rick Santorum vs. Mitt Romney race. It is also quite possible that most of the conservative votes are being divided between Santorum and Gingrich, helping Mitt Romney carry most of the states by a comfortable margin. But with just 2 wins, and a poor showing in the other states, Gingrich may just run out of cash to continue his shot at the presidency.

4. Ron Paul is still fighting it out. He has repeatedly said he is going all the way to the convention, and would like to make as much of an impact as he really can. He is yet to win a state though.

Varun Reddy.

The Juice!

The other states in action on Super Tuesday are Idaho, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Alaska.

Nearly 20 percent of the delegates to the
Republican convention will be chosen on Tuesday night.
And the outcome could from one in which
Mitt Romney seems to have the nomination all but wrapped up to a situation that casts his nomination in doubt.

But no matter what happens, Mr. Romney is likely to remain the favorite to win the nomination, just the way he is to finish with the largest number of delegates from the evening.

On the other hand, both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have a lot on the line as well, quite possibly their survival in the race too. Rick Santorum needs to win Ohio to keep his candidacy alive.

Santorum feels the most pressure in Ohio, where the former senator from Pennsylvania built a lead by highlighting his blue-collar roots but where Romney is now considered to have greater momentum.

And as Newt Gingrich claims that 'He'll carry Georgia decisively' , that would act as a perfect launchpad for his comeback. A week from Super Tuesday, Newt Gingrich might sweep the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. The problem for Gingrich is that even if he does sweep Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, the onus will be on him to prove that he is something more than just a regional candidate — given that his only victory in the race to date was in the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary.

Ron Paul is yet to win a state, but Super Tuesday most probably would change that, as the Texax Rep. should do well in low turnout caucuses in North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho.

From a delegate point of view, Romney is nowhere close to clinching the GOP nomination. What Romney needs is to be able to claim a sort of national victory, winning somewhere in every region of the country. And Tennessee is his best chance to do so.

Lets see what Super Tuesday has in store for us!

Bottomline - Win Ohio and Tennessee, and you have won the Night!


Mohit Dayal

Who will win Ohio?

With 66 delegates at stake, Ohio might not be the largest state on Super Tuesday, but it sure is one of the most important. 48 are awarded from the state’s newly redrawn 16 congressional districts, three per district (winner take all) , 15are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and the remaining three (statewide party officials - chairman and national committeeman and committeewoman) are automatic, unbound delegates.

There are no demographic or regional arguments to explain away a loss for Mitt Romney—no home-state advantages, no failures to reach the ballot. Its role in the general election gives Ohio symbolic weight with the Republicans.

According to a recent NBC Marist Poll, Santorum leads Romney 34 to 32. A majority of likely GOP primary voters view Romney as the Republican candidate with the best chance of defeating President Obama in November., but a plurality sees Santorum as the true conservative in the field and as the candidate who best understands their problems.

What’s more, Santorum performs better with the most conservative voters (Tea Party supporters, evangelical Christians, those describing themselves as “very conservative”), while Romney does better with more moderate voters and those who aren’t Tea Party supporters.

Ohio Republicans populate two key areas: big-city suburbs, especially outside Cincinnati, and rural hamlets scattered across the southern stretch of the state. Romney won Michigan on the strength of his performance in Oakland County, outside Detroit, while Santorum failed to run up high enough margins of victory in conservative rural areas. In terms of culture and demographics, Ohio is similar, and the turnout of the state’s Evangelical social conservatives could be decisive.

Adding to Ohio’s meaning is the fact that the other nine contests on Super Tuesday are likely to splinter between the candidates, offering few surprises.

The Bottomline is - No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio !!!

Mohit Dayal