And Santorum surges on…

After his resounding win at Kansas, Santorum arrived at the mini Super-Tuesday (13^th March, 2012) with a lot of hope and confidence. Three states -- Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii -- and American Samoa went to polls that day, and they had a combined total of 119 delegates: Alabama (50), American Samoa (9), Hawaii (20) and Mississippi (40). But it was not the numbers that mattered anymore, at least not for the Santorum camp. The wins mattered, and they mattered a lot.

"Republicans, why y u no vote for Mitt 

Romney like my ads say you should?"

The polls in Mississippi showed a tight race between the top-three contenders. It was an important race for all the three candidates – Mitt Romney wanted to show he can carry the Southern States in the general elections, Santorum wanted to prove that he is the only viable conservative candidate in fray, and Gingrich wanted to show he can still win outside his home-turf states of South Carolina and Georgia. In the end, it was a close race, in which Santorum came out on top with 33% of the votes, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 31% each. Ron Paul came a distant 4^th with just 4% of the votes. However, the delegates were evenly divided between the top-three candidates, thereby neutralizing the effect of the win for Santorum. The result in Alabama was no less different, with Santorum winning the state with 35% of the votes, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 29% each, Paul coming a distant 4^th at 5%. The delegate share was more skewed that the one in Mississippi though.

The results in American Samoa and Hawaii went on expected lines, with Mitt Romney winning both by a comfortable margin. With that, the current delegate count (as per our estimates) happens to be:

	Delegates so far	AL	MS	AS	HI	Total Delegates
Mitt Romney	412	11	12	6	9	450
Rick Santorum	182	18	13	0	3	216
Newt Gingrich	110	12	12	0	0	134
Ron Paul	45	0	0	0	3	48
UP/EO/UC*	38*	9	3	3	3	56

* Unpledged/Ex-Officio/Uncommitted

What these results (and the ones in Kansas) did was to change the tone of Mitt Romney’s campaign. So far, the Romney campaign has emphasized on three factors regarding their candidate: 1) Electability and 2) Winning streak and 3) Appeal among the larger Republican base. With 2) and 3) being ripped apart to shreds by Santorum’s surge (and also the possibility of Gingrich taking away his votes), the Romney camp has shifted to “he can win the required number of delegates” stance, which is highly defensive in nature. Santorum has managed to snatch many victories in the states he was expected to win well, but each state has its own way of allotting delegates, and this puts a dent in his winning count.

A few more states are up for election next week. Meanwhile, we shall try to see why Gingrich is not giving up that easily, and also on some of the issues that these candidates differ in.

Varun Reddy.

The Wyoming Caucus

"Phew, I finally won that state!"

After a long fought caucus spanning 20 days, the state of Wyoming, divided its 26 pledged delegates among all the candidates. Not surprisingly, Mitt Romney won the state of Wyoming with 39% of the vote, followed by Santorum (32%), Ron Paul (21%) and Newt Gingrich (8%). The delegate count after the state of Wyoming was as follows, with 17 delegates unpledged and 1 delegate uncommitted.

Candidate	Delegates so far	Wyoming	Total
Mitt Romney	180	7	187
Rick Santorum	90	3	93
Newt Gingrich	30	0	30
Ron Paul	23	1	24
Jon Huntsman*	2	0	2
Unpledged / Ex-officio	18	17+1	36

We had to delay the results of Super Tuesday because of the delay in the reporting of the results of the Wyoming caucuses. We just wanted to keep things accurate you know J Super Tuesday results follow.

Varun Reddy.

The race so far...

Hi friends

Sorry for the missing updates. Both the moderators were busy in the last few weeks. Here is a round-up of what happened in the last month:

1. Florida Primaries (January 31)

In what is considered a swing state, Mitt Romney held his nerves against a resurgent Newt Gingrich to win 46% of the votes and win all the delegates in a closed primary in Florida. Newt Gingrich came a distant second with 32% of the votes.  The background data can be found here.

2. Nevada Caucuses (February 4)

As expected, Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses by a huge margin, securing more than 50% of the votes in this closed caucus, picking 14 delegates on the way. Gingrich and Paul stood a distant second and third, with Santorum giving a dismal performance. The result was expected because of the huge Mormon contribution in this state.

3. Mini Super Tuesday - Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (February 7)

One of them could end up as the eventual
nominee after Super Tuesday :) 

The race took a dramatic turn on what turned out to be a great Tuesday for the uber-conservative Rick Santorum. After his tall claims of being the only true-conservative on the block did not yield positive results in many states after his surprise win in Iowa, Santorum was looking for redemption – and he got not one, but three redemptions, one of which was quite shocking!

In 2008, Mitt Romney had won Minnesota and Missouri quite convincingly with 41% and 60% of the votes respectively. But what he received in 2012 was quite a huge shock. Rick Santorum carried both these states with 45% and 55% respectively, with Romney coming in the 2^nd place in Minnesota, but falling behind Ron Paul in Missouri to 3^rd place. However, for Missouri, the primary election will not determine which delegates will be sent to the national convention; this will instead be determined by the caucuses in March. However, Santorum’s win was quite a boost for his campaign.

Colorado was not expected to be a cakewalk for Mitt Romney, as he was 3^rd in 2008. John McCain prevailed over Mike Huckabee in 2008, with Mitt Romney coming a close third. However, with Newt Gingrich not contesting the ballot (due to a missed deadline), the conservatives rallied behind Santorum to give him a convincing 40% to Mitt Romney’s 35% victory.

4. Maine Caucuses (February 11)

In a closely fought race, Mitt Romney edged out Ron Paul in the Maine Caucuses 39% to 35%. Ron Paul picked up 10 delegates, while Romney picked up 11. Mitt Romney had won more than 51% of the votes back in 2008, and had

5. The Litmus Test states – Michigan and Arizona (February 28)

Michigan and Arizona were the two states Mitt Romney needed to win to assert his dominance over the race, and he did it in style! He surpassed his vote %age count of 2008 to romp home in Michigan by winning 41% of the votes, although Rick Santorum was a close second. Arizona, won by John McCain in 2008, was a cake walk for Mitt Romney as he won 47% of the vote to take all the delegates from this state.

6. Wyoming – the complications mount (February 29)

Wyoming, a state with a total of 29 delegates, has three different steps in its delegate allocation process. Between February 9 and February 29, individual Wyoming counties hold caucuses. Caucus-goers cast ballots in a non-binding presidential preference vote. Then, county conventions are held between March 6 and March 10. Finally, in mid-April, the state GOP holds a convention. Of the total 29 delegates, 26 are tied to the caucus and convention process. Three delegates are unpledged RNC member delegates. The straw poll showed Mitt Romney as the clear favourite to win here.

7. Washington State (March 3)

Although Mitt Romney came 3^rd in the elections held in 2008, he scored a decisive victory in 2012 winning 37.6% of the vote. Ron Paul edged out Rick Santorum 25% to 24% for the 2^nd spot.

The final tally (not counting Wyoming) is as follows: (AP estimates)

Candidate	IA	NH	SC	FL	NV	CO	MN	ME	AZ	MI	WA	Total
Mitt Romney	12	7	2	50	14	9	0	11	29	16	30	180
Rick Santorum	13	0	0	0	3	18	37	0	0	14	5	90
Newt Gingrich	0	0	23	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	30
Ron Paul	0	3	0	0	5	0	0	10	0	0	5	23
Jon Huntsman*	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Unpledged / Ex-officio	3	0	0	0	0	6	3	3	0	0	3	18

* He's not in the race anymore

Mitt Romney has a clear lead so far but his nearest rival can catch up on Super Tuesday i.e. 6^th March, 2012. What is that you might ask? Well Mohit has the briefing in the next report coming soon.

Varun Reddy.

And then there were three…

Newt shows his critics "the finger" :)

What a week this has been !!!! A huge week indeed !!!! Mitt Romney, considered the Republican frontrunner for the Presidential Elections, was trounced convincingly by a man who failed to come in the top-3 in the last two primaries held at Iowa and New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich vanquished Mitt Romney by nearly 13 percentage points. The final scores as as follows:

2012
Candidate	Percentage of Votes
Newt Gingrich	40.4%
Mitt Romney	27.8%
Rick Santorum	17%
Ron Paul	13%

And the delegate count (after modifying the Iowa delegate count to include the latest results) is as follows:

2012
Candidate	IA	NH	SC	Total
Newt Gingrich	0	0	23	23
Mitt Romney	12	7	0	19
Rick Santorum	13	0	0	13
Ron Paul	0	3	0	3
Jon Huntsman*	0	2	0	2

*Jon Huntsman is not in the race anymore, but his delegates will still be tabulated as he had won them before his withdrawal

So we now have three different winners for the first three states – which is the first time it has happened in any of the Primaries !!!!

The Voting Pattern:

The voting pattern says a lot about what holds in the future for Newt Gingrich, the winner of the South Carolina. According to the New York Times’ Exit Poll, 44% of the Evangelican Christians *65% of the electorate) voted for Newt Gingrich. Significantly, 33% of the non-Evangelicans also voted for Newt Gingrich, just below 38% for Mitt Romney. Nearly 45% of the Tea-Party supporters also voted for Newt.

But what’s striking is that nearly 45% of the electorate wants to select a candidate who can defeat Barack Obama, and more than 51% of such people voted for Newt. Neatly 55% of the electorate made up their minds to vote only in the last few days before the polls, and of these 55%, nearly 44% of the people voted for Newt – that’s nearly a quarter of the total electorate which made up its mind at the last minute!!!! This can also be seen from the fact that nearly 31% of the Independent electorate voted for Gingrich, more than they did for Ron Paul !!!!

So is this the surge that Gingrich was looking for?

Newt Gingrich was looking down and out. He was behind Rick Santorum in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and was chided for asking Rick to withdraw his nomination so ensure he wins the anti-Romney bid! But then came Florida and Newt didn’t just win – he trounced almost every one of his opponents! But then, this win changes everything, well may be not everything. But the question now being asked is: “Could Gingrich actually win the GOP presidential nomination?” The latest Gallup's national daily tracking poll shows a virtual-tie between Gingrich and Romney nation-wide. Romney's lead over Gingrich has now narrowed to a single percentage point (29 to 28 percent), as shown by these polls.

But there is one other detail that we forgot to consider – the Tea Party movement. South Carolina is considered a hotbed of Tea Party support. Four of the state's freshmen congressmen and first-time Governor Nikki Haley were elected in 2010 based, in part, on their strong associations with the movement. More than a third of voters - 34 percent - in the South Carolina Republican primary strongly support the Tea Party movement. 

Meanwhile, President Obama reacts to Newt Gingrich's SC Win :D

Another detail which played a huge role in this win – the debates! Nearly two-thirds of South Carolina Republican primary voters - 65 percent - said the recent debates were one of the most important factors in deciding whom to support, with 13 percent saying it was the single most important factor. Of those voters who said the debates were one of the most important factors in their decision, a whopping 50 percent cast a ballot for Gingrich.

This is certainly a boost to Newt’s campaign and Mitt Romney is in for a fight if he wants to secure his nomination as early as possible. The latest Ramussen polls show Gingrich in a solid lead over Mitt Romney. But there are three things worth noting:

1. Nine percent (9%) of the voters are yet undecided.

2. Florida has an early voting system – and Mitt holds a 11-point lead among the early voters

3. Till mid-December, Florida heavily favoured Newt Gingrich over Mitt Romney, and now Gingrich leads the polls once again. This is a swing state, and votes can go either way.

The Huffington Post writes about this love-hate relationship that the Republican voters have with Mitt Romney.

Most Republicans have been reluctant to embrace Romney, even though most also consider him their most viable candidate, because they would prefer to find a more conservative champion… The issue is not that Republicans are flatly opposed to Romney. A CBS News/New York Times survey conducted just after the New Hampshire primary found that only 10 percent of Republicans nationwide could not support Romney, but only 28 percent were ready to support him "enthusiastically." The rest could back Romney only "with reservations" or "because he is the Republican party nominee" (59 percent).

Last heard, Mitt Romney did well in the first debate at Florida, while Newt Gingrich stumbled. Mitt Romney also released his tax records, which actually reveal nothing more than what they ere expected to reveal. It was the debate that helped Newt spice up his campaign. Let’s see how long he lasts in this race.

Note: Voting in the South Carolina Republican Primary is limited to registered Republicans only, meaning the electorate might be composed of the more conservative voters that fueled Gingrich's win in South Carolina. Gingrich is hoping that twin victories in South Carolina and Florida would decimate the aura of inevitability Romney built around his campaign.

Varun Reddy.