Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Ron Paul :Architect of The New American Foreign Policy?


In a May 2007 Republican debate, a candidate argued that the United States provoked the 9/11 terrorist attacks through its aggressive posture towards the Middle East. This candidate was Ron Paul.

He was the only Republican member of Congress running for president who did not
vote to authorize the Iraq war in 2002. He remains critical of U.S. involvement in the
region and says the war “was sold to us with false information.” Paul’s campaigns
have always focused on typical libertarian issues: small government, lower taxes,
free market policies, and NON-INTERVENTIONISM abroad.


On almost every core national security and foreign-policy issue, he holds a position that is in fierce opposition to the views of mainstream Republicans.In a way, he brings a new dimension to the Replican Presidential race.

Infact, Ron Paul is unique among all the Presidential candidates, and in a tiny minority of US politicians, who are willing to challenge the prevailing poisonous atmosphere of military glorification disguised as hyper-patriotism.


Views on War on Terror

He belittles the war on terror as a "cliché" that is used to "con the people into thinking that all citizens must cooperate and sacrifice our liberties to ‘win' the war." He is openly disdainful of the use of torture and other extrajudicial tactics that have been used to fight it. He is dismissive of the need to kill top Al-Qaeda lieutenants, including Osama bin Laden; blames U.S. foreign policy and meddling in other country's affairs for the "blowback" that contributed to 9/11; and downplays the efficacy of the country's military might.

In Paul's view, if the United States simply stayed out of other countries' business we would be left alone.

He proposes to reduce the military budget, abolish the CIA, pull the United States out of NATO, end financial support for Israel, and do nothing in the face of Iranian nuclear proliferation, which he claims is a legitimate desire for Tehran to have.

Clearly, if ever there was someone whose thoughts were far off the mainstream, it has to be Ron Paul. Infact, his campaign is all about changing the conventional orthodoxies" that are articulated by the other GOP candidates. In his view, as Bruce Fein puts it, the United States should not exercise global leadership by the end of the sword but rather by the "influence of its example".

Despite his bizarre views on the gold standard, climate change, social security, and the like, Paul has put his finger on a number of issues that could resonate broadly with the American people, especially if discussion were not monopolized by think tanks and insiders who are strongly committed to the status quo.


And If he does say that excessive interventionism and other failed policies are a
primary cause of anti-Americanism around the world,
and that the United States
would be more popular and safer if we focused more attention on trade and
diplomacy and domestic issues instead of emphasizing military dominance and
overseas meddling, is it wrong? ..

And while the rest of the GOP candidates are mostly competing to see who can
sound the most eager for war (usually with Iran) or most willing to toss more
money at the Pentagon, Ron Paul wants to cut the military budget!


The fact is, in the backdrop of 10 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, Ron Paul offers a much clearer alternative, one that is not easy to dismiss with a sound-bite or two.

And given the nuclear revolution, America's favorable geographic location, and the nature of the modern global economy, in fact, there's a pretty good case to be made for a much more limited global posture that shifts more of the burden for regional security onto others and focuses on fixing domestic problems like the economy and unemployment.

The good news is that Ron Paul's views clearly resonate with a sizeable core of young and fairly well-educated voters.
That indeed is a good sign for the future!

Mohit Dayal

Monday, January 9, 2012

Does religion matter?

Does religion matter?

(c) The Colbert Report
Religion has played a important part in politics worldwide, and it has been no different in the US Presidential Elections. Although the early elections (pre Civil War) were not fought on the religious platform, the last few elections has seen the rise of religious beliefs of the candidate as an important parameter. Religious affiliation of the candidate came into prominence in 2008 when Barack Obama was accused by some as being a Muslim by birth.

The following graph clearly shows how the %age representation of various religious denominations in the United States has changed dramatically over the course of history.

Religion
%age of Population
No. of presidents
%age of Presidents
Christian
78.4%
37
86%
Evangelical Protestant
26.3%
Baptist (4)
44.2%
Methodist (3)
Presbyterian (6)
Quakers (2)
Unitarian (4)
Mainline Protestant
18.1%
Congregationalist (1)
39.5%
Dutch Reformed (2)
Disciples of Christ (3)
Episcopalian (11)
Black Church
6.9%
0
--
Catholic
23.9%
Roman Catholic (1)
2.3%
Mormon
1.7%
0
--
Jehovah's Witness
0.7%
0
--
Eastern Orthodox
0.6%
0
--
Other Christian
0.3%
0
--
Unaffiliated
16.1%
6
14%
Non-Christian Religions
4.7%
0
--
Don't know/refused answer
0.8%
0
--

Source: Wikipedia

Although there have been close to 40% Mainline Protestant Presidents, they make up no more than18% of the population. A similar case can be seen with the Evangelical Protestants. It is quite interesting to note that John F. Kennedy is the only Catholic ever to be elected the President of the USA in spite of Catholics making up nearly 24% of the electorate, the single largest denomination with no sub-denominations.

According to Wikipedia, Episcopalians are extraordinarily well represented among the presidents, compared to a current membership of about 2% of the population – partly because the Episcopal Church had been the Church of England before the American Revolution and was the state religion in some states (such as New York and Virginia). The first seven presidents listed as Episcopalians were all from Virginia. Unitarians and Quakers are also overrepresented, reflecting the importance of those colonial churches. Conversely, Baptists are underrepresented, a reflection of their quite recent expansion in numbers.

Among the current Republican candidates, two of the frontrunners come from the same Mormom faith, which makes up 1.7% of the electorate. They are Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman (who’ll start his campaign from the New Hampshire primaries scheduled to start in less than 10 hours). Now why does this affect the campaign in any way? That is because of the controversies that have surrounded their faith from time to time.

The Boston Globe and USA Today talked about the faith-adherence of both these candidates. While Romney is highly active and orthodox who has embraced the Mormon church quite unequivocally, Huntsman has called his adherence to Mormon practices “tough to define” and has described himself as someone who gets “satisfaction from many different types of religions and philosophies.’’

The Atlantic has attributed the Romney’s and Huntsman’s moderate stands on various issues to their religion, saying that the fourth largest denomination in the U.S. and the one richest per capita, has come of age at the national level. Although the state of Utah is overwhelmingly Mormon (60-60%), it also contains a constituency of liberal and moderate voters, and the influence of that demographic has been reflected in the more liberal positions taken by Huntsman on social issues (He came out in favour of gay civil unions). On a similar note, the Deseret News has reported that the fact that Romney and Huntsman are currently the only two Republican presidential candidates who embrace mainstream science on climate change and evolution is no coincidence and can be attributed to the absence of any official statement from the Mormon-church on this issue.

The state of Utah, despite having only 2.8 million people, was Mr. Romney’s third biggest source of money in 2008 — after Massachusetts, where he had been governor, and California — contributing more than $5.5 million. Mr. Romney also raised significant money in heavily Mormon areas of the West outside Utah, particularly in Idaho (26% Mormon) and Arizona (5% Mormon). In the 2008 Republican presidential primary in Utah, he got almost 90 percent of the vote. However, as governor of Utah, Huntsman’s pro-business agenda (cut taxes, balanced the state budget and reduce business regulations) was more successful with a conservative Utah legislature. The local economy boomed and many out-of-state businesses flocked to relocate to his state. Utah was rated the best managed state by the Pew Center on the States during Huntsman’s tenure (2005-2009). Huntsman was also a hit with the Democrats of Utah.

But if one of them actually wins the Republican nomination, he could have a hard time convincing the national voters. A Gallup poll released in June showed that 22% of Americans would not vote for their political party's presidential nominee next year if that person is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons). The percentage of those unwilling to vote for a Mormon has remained largely unchanged since 1967. However, this could be because never has in American history have two Mormon candidates stood for elections. Past Gallup polls found that in 1959, the year before the voters elected the first Catholic U.S. president, John F. Kennedy, one-quarter of Americans said they would not vote for a Catholic. That opposition fell to 21 percent by 1960 and to 13 percent by August 1961, Gallup reported. May be America will finally warm up to the idea of having a Mormon-president :)

Many other factors will surely come into play, factors like party loyalty or pocketbook concerns. As the Huffington Post claims, for Republicans beating Obama could be the most important factor of all. It is very possible that White evangelicals will more likely vote Republican, even if the party nominates someone who isn't known for strong faith commitments. So is quite prudent to say that faith will surely play an important role in determining the next President of the United States, just as it always has!

Varun Reddy.

Friday, January 6, 2012

What New Hampshire holds for Mitt Romney


The Republican Presidential Candidates will step into the ring in New Hampshire for Round Two of the Primary Season.
And the pressure is on Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, to meet the huge expectations and win his old neighboring state's primary convincingly.

With a single weekend of campaigning left before Tuesday’s primary, and with 23 delegates up for grabs, we look at the challenges and opportunities which New Hampshire might throw up for Mitt Romney.

How is New Hampshire different from Iowa?

Well, Iowa is anomalous to say the least . Iowa’s economy is unusually healthy with only 5.7 percent unemployment, high agricultural prices and strong real estate values. Although the economy did rate as a major issue in the entrance poll, in such relative prosperity it registers more as a concern for the nation than as a visceral personal issue — diminishing the impact of Romney’s calling card, economic competence. Yet, Romney won. Although it was by a hair,still!

But Exit polls out of Iowa showed worrying figures about conservative support for Romney that he’ll want to reverse in New Hampshire. Santorum’s surge is founded, in part on his support from self-identified very conservative voters, and if they stay with him (or migrate to Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich) it portends a drawn-out race. Santorum also led the field among 65% of voters who feel positively about the tea-party movement.

Challenges leading up to Tuesday

As a former governor of Massachusetts, Romney has a built-in advantage in New Hampshire.
He's the favourite to win!.
Democrats have experienced this in their primaries: Three times in the past six presidential races, Democratic politicians from Massachusetts have won the primaries here.

According to latest polls, Romney earns 40%, and holds a wide lead over the other candidates.
So, even if we go by conventional wisdom, and assume that Romney has New Hampshire in the bag, it'll be important to watch his margin of victory.
Therein lies the challenge for Mitt Romney.
Victory is expected, and he will receive less credit for winning here than anywhere else. But a weaker-than-expected showing will add to the questions about whether he can win the GOP nomination.

In 2008, Romney came in second (to John McCain) with 32%. No doubt he’ll want to do better than that (and also better than the 37% scored by McCain four years ago).
Momentum matters for all the candidates and Romney needs a commanding win as he heads into the southern battlefield of South Carolina.

And to top it off, Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, who has lagged in the polls but devoted intense energy to New Hampshire, got a boost two days back when he won the endorsement of the Boston Globe, which is Romney’s home-state newspaper.

A short analysis of the other candidates in the next post!

P.S. - Mitt Romney has rocketed to an 18-point lead in South Carolina, according to CNN poll released today. South Carolina, the first southern state to hold a primary, could prove to be a crossroads for the Republican nomination process!

Mohit Dayal

Next Stop : New Hampshire


The New Hampshire primary is the first primary election held in the United States and the second step following the Iowa Caucuses in choosing the Democratic and Republican nominees for the presidency. It takes place in the small state of New Hampshire and is designed to give an early and important voice to the New England region much like the Iowa Caucus gives an early and important voice to the Midwest, South Carolina Primary to the South and Nevada Caucus to the West.


New Hampshire is considered an independent state that votes both Democrat and Republican and therefore has been considered a good gauge of the nations feelings.
The New Hampshire Primary gives a candidate with little money, low name recognition or candidates from smaller states legitimate shots at winning. It is a small state who demands personal contact and is opposed to typical negative political ads. History says do well in Iowa or New Hampshire or go home.

Last Time Around

Barack Obama was stunned by Hillary R. Clinton here four years ago. He was on a roll and arrived as a heavy favorite after a thumping victory in Iowa.
Five days later, Hillary Rodham Clinton defeated him in a stunning upset that he never saw coming.

On the other hand, The Republican primaries saw John McCain defeat Mitt Romney and take 7 of the 12 national delegates up for grabs. Sen. McCain registered 37% votes, compared to Romney's 32% .

More on the New Hampshire Primary in the next post!


Mohit Dayal

The Republican Iowa Caucuses...

Good evening!

We will talk about the differences b/w caucuses and primaries in another post. For new, let’s have a look at the first caucus which took place in Iowa on 3rd January, 2012. We will look at the Republican-side of the story in this post. Before the Iowa caucuses there were seven candidates who were in fray for the Presidential nomination from the Republican Party:
  1. Mitt Romney (Former Governor of Massachusetts)
  2. Newt Gingrich (Georgia; Former Speaker of the House of Representatives)
  3. Governor Rick Perry (Texas)
  4. Congressman Ron Paul (Texas)
  5. Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (Minnesota)
  6.  Jon Huntsman, Jr. (Former Governor of Utah)
  7. Rick Santorum (Former Senator and Congressman from Pennsylvania)

Romney was considered to be a frontrunner, because of his 2nd-place finish in the Republican Primaries last year. However, in the few months before the Iowa Caucuses (the first ever Republican caucus / primary for 2012), Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann have all topped the polls at one time or the other, but none has been as consistent as Romney. Paul has been in the reckoning too. He has not been a frontrunner, but has a large grassroots support, which has been pretty consistent. = The guy may be a radical, but he is persistent, clean (so far) and has an excellent background.

Results:

My heart told me that Paul would spring a surprise in Iowa, but I would have been happy even with a Romney-Paul one-two. But as it turned out, it was a very close race in Iowa. The early entrance polls (yep, I have not confused it with exit polls) showed a close three-way tie with Paul leading the pack followed by Romney and a surging Santorum. But midway into the counting, it became clear that Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum were running neck-to-neck, with Romney having a narrow lead. In the end, Mitt Romney won the Iowa caucus by the narrowest of margins - 8 votes! Ron Paul finished in 3rd place – not a bad showing for a man who is not even a Republican :) The narrow margin has spawned rumours of errors in the caucus tally, but Santorum has shrugged off any such rumours, saying that the race was essentially a tie.

History:

The Iowa caucus rules are a bit complicated to understand, with Business Insider claiming that Ron Paul May Have Just Secretly Won Iowa (in spite of his 3rd place finish). However, the official news is that the 25 delegates will be split 13-12 b/w Romney and Santorum. But in spite of all technicalities, the Iowa caucus is more about momentum, planning and strategy. The states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, all have a sizeable Republican support, and their demographic mirrors that at the national level. Hence those with a good showing in these three states would lend credibility to the candidate in the remaining races. For example, the results of the 2008 primaries in these three states were as follows:

S.No.
Iowa
New Hampshire
1
Mike Huckabee (34%)
John McCain (37%)
2
Mitt Romney (25%)
Mitt Romney (31%)
3
Fred Thompson (13%)
Mike Huckabee (11%)
4
John McCain (13%)
Rudy Giuliani (9%)
5
Ron Paul (10%)
Ron Paul (8%)
6
Rudy Giuliani (4%)
Fred Thompson (1%)
7
Duncan Hunter (1%)
Duncan Hunter (1%)
S.No.
South Carolina
Nevada
(same date as South Carolina)
1
John McCain (33.15%)
Mitt Romney (51.1%)
2
Mike Huckabee (29.84%)
Ron Paul (13.73%)
3
Fred Thompson (15.63%)
John McCain (12.75%)
4
Mitt Romney (15.3%)
Mike Huckabee (8.16%)
5
Ron Paul (3.62%)
Fred Thompson (7.94%)
6
Rudy Giuliani (2.15%)
Rudy Giuliani (4.31%)
7
Duncan Hunter (0.24%)
Duncan Hunter (2.01%)


You can see that John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee had the initial momentum (or using McCain’s language – “the surge”) in the race with a consistent top-4 showing. Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter and Rudy Giuliani withdrew after the initial primaries (around 8 were conducted in January, 2008). After February 7th, 2008, which was a super Tuesday (or a Tsunami Thursday) when more than 20 states had their primaries, Mitt Romney also gave up on the nomination because of the surge of McCain. After a month, even Mike Huckabee had to give up, as McCain clinched the nomination quite easily.

Implications:

After the initial showing in Iowa, Michelle Bachmann has quit the race, and Rick Perry had given up too, for a few hours! After saying that he would go back to Texas to “reassess” his campaign, Perry announced that he is still in the race! However, he’s concentrating a lot on South Carolina, and will be in New Hampshire for just two debates scheduled to be held before the primaries. Jon Huntsman was never in the reckoning for Iowa, as he had concentrated on New Hampshire form the very beginning. Newt is looking pretty good, but I am not sure how much of a dent he can make on Romney’s chances.

My take: The main problem lies with the voters in the bible-belt and the Christian conservatives. They want a “anyone but Romney” candidate, the way they wanted last time in 2008 (as Mitt and McCain are more centrists than rightists, hence Huckabee stayed in the race for a long time). But just like last time, they are not able to reach a compromise. Their votes will be split 3-way b/w Bachmann, Santorum and Newt, and Romney might just slide through in the larger picture. Too early to tell anyways.

In other news, the former contender Herman Cain had returned to Iowa. Not for campaigning, just looking for ass !!! (so sayd Mohit) J

Ciao for now J

Varun Reddy.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

The Race Begins !!!!

Good evening!

Four years ago I had covered both the Democratic and Republican Primaries on my personal blog with the label “US Presidential Elections”. It was a wonderful phase in my life, as I happened to read and understand the many facets of American Politics, and learnt to appreciate Democracy the way it exists in the most powerful democracy on our planet. I was an ardent supporter of Senator John McCain (Rep.) even though I was slightly biased towards Congressman Ron Paul (Rep./Lib.). I was also in favour of Governor Sarah Palin (Alaska) for the position of VP. But it was not enough as President Obama and VP Joe Biden won the elections comfortably. Overall, the experience was intriguing and exciting.

This year, however, the incumbent Democrat President is running almost unopposed for a 2nd term in the White House (more on that in a later post talking exclusively about the Democratic Presidential Primaries). But what makes this election equally interesting is “supposed non-availability” of a strong Republican candidate who can appeal to the core Republican base and at the same time has a broader appeal, broad enough to topple President Obama in the final Presidential elections to be held on 4th November, 2012.

The 2008 win of President Obama was during a period of uncertainty and confusion. He gave hope and promised a thriving America. Instead the people felt betrayed by his bailout of American Banks and his going-back on his promise of bringing home the American troops waging wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead he gave them the Healthcare bill, which took a heavy beating in the Congress thanks to the Republicans. The bill also reinforced the till-then-dormant paranoia of President Obama trying to infuse Socialism in the American way of life.  Overall, Obama’s image took a solid beating, and less and less people were unsure if he should be given another term.

But what to do if there is not another alternative? That is still the dilemma among many of the Independent voters (around 25 to 30% of the electorate) who did not see anyone from the Republican-side who could do a better job than what Obama did. The radicalization of the Republican Party, with the advocate of the Tea Party members (the most notable ones being Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann) did not help the Republican cause of mobilizing supporters from all walks of life. Although the movement did attract many people, Most of them were already ardent supporters of the Republican Party, and did not add to the moderate numbers in the Republican camp.

So this year’s election is the Republicans’ to lose. If they manage to select a moderate conservative, they might just sneak past the post, but risk losing the support of the one they elected. If they select a radical right-winger, they might just lose in the final elections. But 8 months is a lot of time, and things change a lot. Let’s hope for the best.

Varun Reddy.

Welcome to our blog!


Good afternoon!

Welcome to the unofficial coverage of the Indian view-point of the US Presidential Elections. If you’ve landed on this blog, you must be somewhat interested in what is going on in the US Presidential Elections and its dynamics. Caucuses, Primaries etc.; oh the confusion of it all!

Through this blog, I and my colleague and good friend Mohit Dayal will try to make sense of the chaotic race to the White House, 2012. We will try to give an Indian perspective to the elections i.e. how we, as two young educated Indians perceive this long and arduous process. However, bear in mind that our views are personal, and have been formulated after a lot of reading (magazines, newspapers etc.) and viewing (TV, Movies etc.) of this process. We might not always offer the fairest of views, but we will surely try to be as objective as we possibly can.

It was Mohit’s idea to start a separate blog for covering the US Presidential Elections. Since we have regular discussions relating to this on Facebook, I thought it was natural to air our thoughts and views on a larger scale.

My name is Varun Reddy (nickname: IIM Ka Sarkari Babu). After completing my MBA from IIM Lucknow, I landed a job in a Govt. organization in the Personnel Division. I love blogging and have blogged on the US Presidential Elections in 2008. You can view the 2008 Election coverage at this link.

Mohit is doing his Bachelors in Computer Sciences at the KIIT. He blogs on politics and other issues related to India and the world alike. His blog can be accessed at this link.

We hope that you find our coverage interesting. Please do comment and feel free to share your views on the post concerned. And once again, welcome J

Varun Reddy.