The Story of Massachusetts.

Home state for Mitt Romney.

41 delegates,out of which 38 are awarded proportionately based on statewide vote share and the rest, are automatic, unbound delegates.

Mitt Romney should have no trouble in the Bay State, where he has lived for more than 25 years and served as governor from 2003 to 2007, and with delegates awarded on a statewide basis he needn’t even worry about any congressional districts being picked off.

But as he learned with his 10 point win in 2008, proportional delegate distribution can be a bugger. Despite getting skunked, John McCain still got 18 delegates to Romney’s 22. There’s been no reliable polling on the state, but Romney can be happy about how this year’s race has shaped up for Massachusetts voters.. McCain took his votes away from Romney mostly among the most moderate Republicans in and immediately around Boston. These are not likely Santorum or Gingrich votes.

If Romney can clear 60 percent of the vote and Santorum is the only other candidate over 15 percent, as seems likely, he might take 30 of 38 delegates.

Bottomline - Massachusetts is going to be a cakewalk for Romney. As Simple as that!

Mohit Dayal

Tennessee - The South Beckons!

Tennessee, with 58 delegates, is one of the most exciting contests this Super Tuesday.

The three-way tie between Mitt Romney, Mr. Gingrich, and Rick Santorum in Tennessee has emerged as one of the biggest symbolic contests of the Republican primary season. A win for Mr. Romney in a bona fide Southern state could mean he is at last making inroads with the evangelical Christian and hard-right voters who've so far been his Achilles' heel.

Only seven public polls have been released in Tennessee over the past month. Rick Santorum held a wide lead in early February, but three telephone surveys conducted over the past few days show Santorum holding remarkably consistent, narrow leads, ranging from 4 to 5 percentage points ahead of Romney. In those polls, Newt Gingrich wins support between 18 and 27 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 8 to 9 percent.

Gingrich needs a win in Tennessee Tuesday and wins in Alabama and Mississippi next week to help carry him through to Texas, where a victory might open the possibility of a brokered national convention.

On the other hand, the symbolism of a Romney win in Tennessee would be dramatic, analysts say. For the first time, Romney could start talking about being a national candidate, having won a contest in all regions of the country.

Bottomline - "Romney could seal the deal if he takes not only Ohio, but Tennessee,” CNN contributor Alex Castellanos.


Mohit Dayal

The Fight for Georgia.

Georgia, in many ways, is Newt Gingrich's fort.

But first, lets look at the numbers.

Georgia has 76 delegates up for grabs. 42 are awarded from the state’s 14 congressional districts, three per district (outright majority wins all three district delegates, plurality win gets two, with one for the runner-up), 31 are awarded proportionately based on statewide vote share (20 percent threshold), and 3 are awarded as a bonus to the popular vote winner.

Newt Gingrich represented Georgia’s 6th Congressional district from 1979 to 1999. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won 80 percent of the state’s delegates with only 34 percent of the popular vote. Gingrich has campaigned so much in Georgia despite a steady lead in polls because he wants to run up the score for the sake of delegates. If Gingrich can dominate his old suburban stomping grounds as well as rural districts around the state he might do even better than Huckabee did last time.

Bottomline - 80 percent of Georgia’s delegates would be almost the same size as Ohio’s entire delegation.

Who will win Ohio?

With 66 delegates at stake, Ohio might not be the largest state on Super Tuesday, but it sure is one of the most important. 48 are awarded from the state’s newly redrawn 16 congressional districts, three per district (winner take all) , 15are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and the remaining three (statewide party officials - chairman and national committeeman and committeewoman) are automatic, unbound delegates.

There are no demographic or regional arguments to explain away a loss for Mitt Romney—no home-state advantages, no failures to reach the ballot. Its role in the general election gives Ohio symbolic weight with the Republicans.

According to a recent NBC Marist Poll, Santorum leads Romney 34 to 32. A majority of likely GOP primary voters view Romney as the Republican candidate with the best chance of defeating President Obama in November., but a plurality sees Santorum as the true conservative in the field and as the candidate who best understands their problems.

What’s more, Santorum performs better with the most conservative voters (Tea Party supporters, evangelical Christians, those describing themselves as “very conservative”), while Romney does better with more moderate voters and those who aren’t Tea Party supporters.

Ohio Republicans populate two key areas: big-city suburbs, especially outside Cincinnati, and rural hamlets scattered across the southern stretch of the state. Romney won Michigan on the strength of his performance in Oakland County, outside Detroit, while Santorum failed to run up high enough margins of victory in conservative rural areas. In terms of culture and demographics, Ohio is similar, and the turnout of the state’s Evangelical social conservatives could be decisive.

Adding to Ohio’s meaning is the fact that the other nine contests on Super Tuesday are likely to splinter between the candidates, offering few surprises.

The Bottomline is - No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio !!!

Mohit Dayal

The Super Tuesday!

The day is 6th March 2012. The place is 10 states across The United States of America.

And the target is The GOP Nomination for the four candidates left in the fray.

Yes. Super Tuesday night not be all that Super, since it has been slimmed down to half its 2008 size. But it sure is one with the biggest payout of the Republican presidential primaries.

It could end the show for Newt Gingrich, or lend more credibility to Raun Paul(after his impressive show in Washington).
And it is an opportunity for both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum to score a decisive advantage over the other.

With more than 400 delegates at stake, the Super Tuesday contests offer a significant boost in the quest for the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the GOP presidential nomination.

The states voting Tuesday are Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia and Wyoming.

As of now, Mitt Romney leads the race for the GOP nomination, with 180 delegates. Rick Santorum is running second with 90 delegates, followed by Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

State-Wise Analysis in the following posts!

Mohit Dayal

The race so far...

Hi friends

Sorry for the missing updates. Both the moderators were busy in the last few weeks. Here is a round-up of what happened in the last month:

1. Florida Primaries (January 31)

In what is considered a swing state, Mitt Romney held his nerves against a resurgent Newt Gingrich to win 46% of the votes and win all the delegates in a closed primary in Florida. Newt Gingrich came a distant second with 32% of the votes.  The background data can be found here.

2. Nevada Caucuses (February 4)

As expected, Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses by a huge margin, securing more than 50% of the votes in this closed caucus, picking 14 delegates on the way. Gingrich and Paul stood a distant second and third, with Santorum giving a dismal performance. The result was expected because of the huge Mormon contribution in this state.

3. Mini Super Tuesday - Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (February 7)

One of them could end up as the eventual
nominee after Super Tuesday :) 

The race took a dramatic turn on what turned out to be a great Tuesday for the uber-conservative Rick Santorum. After his tall claims of being the only true-conservative on the block did not yield positive results in many states after his surprise win in Iowa, Santorum was looking for redemption – and he got not one, but three redemptions, one of which was quite shocking!

In 2008, Mitt Romney had won Minnesota and Missouri quite convincingly with 41% and 60% of the votes respectively. But what he received in 2012 was quite a huge shock. Rick Santorum carried both these states with 45% and 55% respectively, with Romney coming in the 2^nd place in Minnesota, but falling behind Ron Paul in Missouri to 3^rd place. However, for Missouri, the primary election will not determine which delegates will be sent to the national convention; this will instead be determined by the caucuses in March. However, Santorum’s win was quite a boost for his campaign.

Colorado was not expected to be a cakewalk for Mitt Romney, as he was 3^rd in 2008. John McCain prevailed over Mike Huckabee in 2008, with Mitt Romney coming a close third. However, with Newt Gingrich not contesting the ballot (due to a missed deadline), the conservatives rallied behind Santorum to give him a convincing 40% to Mitt Romney’s 35% victory.

4. Maine Caucuses (February 11)

In a closely fought race, Mitt Romney edged out Ron Paul in the Maine Caucuses 39% to 35%. Ron Paul picked up 10 delegates, while Romney picked up 11. Mitt Romney had won more than 51% of the votes back in 2008, and had

5. The Litmus Test states – Michigan and Arizona (February 28)

Michigan and Arizona were the two states Mitt Romney needed to win to assert his dominance over the race, and he did it in style! He surpassed his vote %age count of 2008 to romp home in Michigan by winning 41% of the votes, although Rick Santorum was a close second. Arizona, won by John McCain in 2008, was a cake walk for Mitt Romney as he won 47% of the vote to take all the delegates from this state.

6. Wyoming – the complications mount (February 29)

Wyoming, a state with a total of 29 delegates, has three different steps in its delegate allocation process. Between February 9 and February 29, individual Wyoming counties hold caucuses. Caucus-goers cast ballots in a non-binding presidential preference vote. Then, county conventions are held between March 6 and March 10. Finally, in mid-April, the state GOP holds a convention. Of the total 29 delegates, 26 are tied to the caucus and convention process. Three delegates are unpledged RNC member delegates. The straw poll showed Mitt Romney as the clear favourite to win here.

7. Washington State (March 3)

Although Mitt Romney came 3^rd in the elections held in 2008, he scored a decisive victory in 2012 winning 37.6% of the vote. Ron Paul edged out Rick Santorum 25% to 24% for the 2^nd spot.

The final tally (not counting Wyoming) is as follows: (AP estimates)

Candidate	IA	NH	SC	FL	NV	CO	MN	ME	AZ	MI	WA	Total
Mitt Romney	12	7	2	50	14	9	0	11	29	16	30	180
Rick Santorum	13	0	0	0	3	18	37	0	0	14	5	90
Newt Gingrich	0	0	23	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	30
Ron Paul	0	3	0	0	5	0	0	10	0	0	5	23
Jon Huntsman*	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Unpledged / Ex-officio	3	0	0	0	0	6	3	3	0	0	3	18

* He's not in the race anymore

Mitt Romney has a clear lead so far but his nearest rival can catch up on Super Tuesday i.e. 6^th March, 2012. What is that you might ask? Well Mohit has the briefing in the next report coming soon.

Varun Reddy.

Nevada - The Road Ahead for Mitt Romney!

This Republican presidential race has had more than its share of surprises and unexpected twists. But Nevada seems to be a simpler affair!

Mitt Romney’s opponents will have it tough in Nevada.And it’s largely because of Romney’s Mormon religion.

While Romney’s faith has rightly been described as a liability in previous states — most notably Iowa and South Carolina, where evangelical Christians have balked at supporting Romney — it’s hard to call it anything but a trump card in Nevada.

In the 2008 Nevada caucuses, Romney won the state going away, 51 percent to 14 percent over second-place Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas). And the biggest reason for Romney’s big margin was Mormons.

Despite comprising about 7 percent of the state’s population, they made up more than one-quarter of the GOP caucus electorate, and entrance polls showed Romney winning a stunning 95 percent of their vote.

In other words, half of Romney’s vote in Nevada came from fellow Mormons, and he could have won the state’s caucuses even if he hadn’t gotten a single vote from anyone else.

As Mormons vote in unison and turn out in large numbers, a state like Nevada should be a cakewalk for Romney.

Poll so far shows that Romney will likely win Nevada by a large margin.

After Nevada, even Arizona, whose primary is the next major contest after Nevada’s caucuses (following some less-prominent caucus states next week), has a similar-sized Mormon population.

So, the very thing that arguably cost Romney 10-plus percent of the vote in Iowa and South Carolina is likely to help him win about that much in two of the most important contests in February.

Mohit Dayal