And then there were three…

Newt shows his critics "the finger" :)

What a week this has been !!!! A huge week indeed !!!! Mitt Romney, considered the Republican frontrunner for the Presidential Elections, was trounced convincingly by a man who failed to come in the top-3 in the last two primaries held at Iowa and New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich vanquished Mitt Romney by nearly 13 percentage points. The final scores as as follows:

2012
Candidate	Percentage of Votes
Newt Gingrich	40.4%
Mitt Romney	27.8%
Rick Santorum	17%
Ron Paul	13%

And the delegate count (after modifying the Iowa delegate count to include the latest results) is as follows:

2012
Candidate	IA	NH	SC	Total
Newt Gingrich	0	0	23	23
Mitt Romney	12	7	0	19
Rick Santorum	13	0	0	13
Ron Paul	0	3	0	3
Jon Huntsman*	0	2	0	2

*Jon Huntsman is not in the race anymore, but his delegates will still be tabulated as he had won them before his withdrawal

So we now have three different winners for the first three states – which is the first time it has happened in any of the Primaries !!!!

The Voting Pattern:

The voting pattern says a lot about what holds in the future for Newt Gingrich, the winner of the South Carolina. According to the New York Times’ Exit Poll, 44% of the Evangelican Christians *65% of the electorate) voted for Newt Gingrich. Significantly, 33% of the non-Evangelicans also voted for Newt Gingrich, just below 38% for Mitt Romney. Nearly 45% of the Tea-Party supporters also voted for Newt.

But what’s striking is that nearly 45% of the electorate wants to select a candidate who can defeat Barack Obama, and more than 51% of such people voted for Newt. Neatly 55% of the electorate made up their minds to vote only in the last few days before the polls, and of these 55%, nearly 44% of the people voted for Newt – that’s nearly a quarter of the total electorate which made up its mind at the last minute!!!! This can also be seen from the fact that nearly 31% of the Independent electorate voted for Gingrich, more than they did for Ron Paul !!!!

So is this the surge that Gingrich was looking for?

Newt Gingrich was looking down and out. He was behind Rick Santorum in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and was chided for asking Rick to withdraw his nomination so ensure he wins the anti-Romney bid! But then came Florida and Newt didn’t just win – he trounced almost every one of his opponents! But then, this win changes everything, well may be not everything. But the question now being asked is: “Could Gingrich actually win the GOP presidential nomination?” The latest Gallup's national daily tracking poll shows a virtual-tie between Gingrich and Romney nation-wide. Romney's lead over Gingrich has now narrowed to a single percentage point (29 to 28 percent), as shown by these polls.

But there is one other detail that we forgot to consider – the Tea Party movement. South Carolina is considered a hotbed of Tea Party support. Four of the state's freshmen congressmen and first-time Governor Nikki Haley were elected in 2010 based, in part, on their strong associations with the movement. More than a third of voters - 34 percent - in the South Carolina Republican primary strongly support the Tea Party movement. 

Meanwhile, President Obama reacts to Newt Gingrich's SC Win :D

Another detail which played a huge role in this win – the debates! Nearly two-thirds of South Carolina Republican primary voters - 65 percent - said the recent debates were one of the most important factors in deciding whom to support, with 13 percent saying it was the single most important factor. Of those voters who said the debates were one of the most important factors in their decision, a whopping 50 percent cast a ballot for Gingrich.

This is certainly a boost to Newt’s campaign and Mitt Romney is in for a fight if he wants to secure his nomination as early as possible. The latest Ramussen polls show Gingrich in a solid lead over Mitt Romney. But there are three things worth noting:

1. Nine percent (9%) of the voters are yet undecided.

2. Florida has an early voting system – and Mitt holds a 11-point lead among the early voters

3. Till mid-December, Florida heavily favoured Newt Gingrich over Mitt Romney, and now Gingrich leads the polls once again. This is a swing state, and votes can go either way.

The Huffington Post writes about this love-hate relationship that the Republican voters have with Mitt Romney.

Most Republicans have been reluctant to embrace Romney, even though most also consider him their most viable candidate, because they would prefer to find a more conservative champion… The issue is not that Republicans are flatly opposed to Romney. A CBS News/New York Times survey conducted just after the New Hampshire primary found that only 10 percent of Republicans nationwide could not support Romney, but only 28 percent were ready to support him "enthusiastically." The rest could back Romney only "with reservations" or "because he is the Republican party nominee" (59 percent).

Last heard, Mitt Romney did well in the first debate at Florida, while Newt Gingrich stumbled. Mitt Romney also released his tax records, which actually reveal nothing more than what they ere expected to reveal. It was the debate that helped Newt spice up his campaign. Let’s see how long he lasts in this race.

Note: Voting in the South Carolina Republican Primary is limited to registered Republicans only, meaning the electorate might be composed of the more conservative voters that fueled Gingrich's win in South Carolina. Gingrich is hoping that twin victories in South Carolina and Florida would decimate the aura of inevitability Romney built around his campaign.

Varun Reddy.