The Republican Presidential Candidates will step into the ring in New Hampshire for Round Two of the Primary Season.
And the pressure is on Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, to meet the huge expectations and win his old neighboring state's primary convincingly.
With a single weekend of campaigning left before Tuesday’s primary, and with 23 delegates up for grabs, we look at the challenges and opportunities which New Hampshire might throw up for Mitt Romney.
How is New Hampshire different from Iowa?
Well, Iowa is anomalous to say the least . Iowa’s economy is unusually healthy with only 5.7 percent unemployment, high agricultural prices and strong real estate values. Although the economy did rate as a major issue in the entrance poll, in such relative prosperity it registers more as a concern for the nation than as a visceral personal issue — diminishing the impact of Romney’s calling card, economic competence. Yet, Romney won. Although it was by a hair,still!
But Exit polls out of Iowa showed worrying figures about conservative support for Romney that he’ll want to reverse in New Hampshire. Santorum’s surge is founded, in part on his support from self-identified very conservative voters, and if they stay with him (or migrate to Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich) it portends a drawn-out race. Santorum also led the field among 65% of voters who feel positively about the tea-party movement.
Challenges leading up to Tuesday
As a former governor of Massachusetts, Romney has a built-in advantage in New Hampshire.
He's the favourite to win!.
Democrats have experienced this in their primaries: Three times in the past six presidential races, Democratic politicians from Massachusetts have won the primaries here.
According to latest polls, Romney earns 40%, and holds a wide lead over the other candidates.
So, even if we go by conventional wisdom, and assume that Romney has New Hampshire in the bag, it'll be important to watch his margin of victory.
Therein lies the challenge for Mitt Romney.
Victory is expected, and he will receive less credit for winning here than anywhere else. But a weaker-than-expected showing will add to the questions about whether he can win the GOP nomination.
In 2008, Romney came in second (to John McCain) with 32%. No doubt he’ll want to do better than that (and also better than the 37% scored by McCain four years ago).
Momentum matters for all the candidates and Romney needs a commanding win as he heads into the southern battlefield of South Carolina.
And to top it off, Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, who has lagged in the polls but devoted intense energy to New Hampshire, got a boost two days back when he won the endorsement of the Boston Globe, which is Romney’s home-state newspaper.
A short analysis of the other candidates in the next post!
P.S. - Mitt Romney has rocketed to an 18-point lead in South Carolina, according to CNN poll released today. South Carolina, the first southern state to hold a primary, could prove to be a crossroads for the Republican nomination process!
Mohit Dayal
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