Romney Wins New Hampshire !!!

Hi friends

As most of you must now be aware of, Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primaries, and with a much wider margin as compared to his win at Iowa. Here are the results:

2012		2008
Candidate	Percentage of Votes	Candidate	Percentage of Votes
Mitt Romney	39.3%	John McCain	37%
Ron Paul	22.9%	Mitt Romney	31%
Jon Huntsman	16.9%	Mike Huckabee	11%
Rick Santorum	9.38%	Rudy Giuliani	9%
Newt Gingrich	9.41%	Ron Paul	8%
Rick Perry	0.7%	Fred Thompson	1%

Huntsman put everything at stake
on NH, and came a distant 3rd

Mitt Romney winning the election was not a surprise at all – he was expected to do so. But the margin with which he won the election reflects the mood of the electorate. Compared to the results of 2008, Mitt Romney has increased his shared by just 9% - much less than what he was expected to do this year. However, the biggest surprise has been that of Ron Paul – coming 2^nd with 22.9% of the votes. Jon Huntsman, who did not participate in the Iowa caucuses, managed to come in 3^rd, in spite of winning the endorsement of many of the state’s newspapers as being a “candidate whose views are solidly conservative”.

The way it’s been going so far in the first two elections, it is clear that Mitt Romney has struggled to rally the majority of Republicans behind his candidacy. What the results left unclear, however, is who might emerge as the conservative alternative to Romney. However, if the conservative vote continues to be divided between Huntsman, Gingrich and Santorum, then Mr. Romney could find his march to the nomination almost guaranteed.

Mitt Romney’s New Hampshire win makes him the first non-incumbent Republican to win the first two contests in the modern nominating calendar.

Delegate Tally:

The delegate tally of the Iowa Caucuses is not yet final. However, we will consider the date of the Associated Press, the oldest news agency in the USA, as the one being most accurate. Since New Hampshire has a proportional-delegate primary, the state's 12 national delegates will be allocated proportionally among the candidates with more than 10% of the votes.

2012
Candidate	Iowa	New Hampshire
Mitt Romney	13	7
Ron Paul	0	3
Jon Huntsman	0	2
Newt Gingrich	0	0
Rick Santorum	12	0
Rick Perry	0	0

According to the Associated Press, the Iowa Republican system “puts a premium on getting the most votes in individual congressional districts. If a candidate's supporters can control a congressional district convention, they can choose national delegates and slate committee members who support their candidate.” Hencet Romney and Santorum, who each won two of Iowa's congressional districts, would win 13 and 12 delegates, respectively, assuming there are no changes in their support as the campaign continues. Although Paul ran a close third in the voting, he “was shut out of delegates because he didn't win any of Iowa's four congressional districts.” This projection by the AP is also used by the New York Times.

Voting Pattern:

The exit polls showed that nearly half the electorate in New Hampshire’s Republican primary defined themselves as independent (47 percent), while 48 percent said they were Republicans. Ron Paul won the independent vote with 31%, Mitt Romney took 27% and Jon Huntsman took 23% of their votes. Of the 13 percent of voters that said they’d never voted in a Republican primary before today, Ron Paul carried 37% of them.

Next Stop: South Carolina

The state of South Carolina could well be a testing state for Mitt Romney. Although many polls show him as a clear frontrunner there, a poor or moderate showing there would give his opponents enough fuel to attack him in the later stages of the election. However, a win could be helpful enough to seal the deal. Watch this space for more.

Varun Reddy.