With 66 delegates at stake, Ohio might not be the largest state on Super Tuesday, but it sure is one of the most important. 48 are awarded from the state’s newly redrawn 16 congressional districts, three per district (winner take all) , 15are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and the remaining three (statewide party officials - chairman and national committeeman and committeewoman) are automatic, unbound delegates.
There are no demographic or regional arguments to explain away a loss for Mitt Romney—no home-state advantages, no failures to reach the ballot. Its role in the general election gives Ohio symbolic weight with the Republicans.
According to a recent NBC Marist Poll, Santorum leads Romney 34 to 32. A majority of likely GOP primary voters view Romney as the Republican candidate with the best chance of defeating President Obama in November., but a plurality sees Santorum as the true conservative in the field and as the candidate who best understands their problems.
What’s more, Santorum performs better with the most conservative voters (Tea Party supporters, evangelical Christians, those describing themselves as “very conservative”), while Romney does better with more moderate voters and those who aren’t Tea Party supporters.
Ohio Republicans populate two key areas: big-city suburbs, especially outside Cincinnati, and rural hamlets scattered across the southern stretch of the state. Romney won Michigan on the strength of his performance in Oakland County, outside Detroit, while Santorum failed to run up high enough margins of victory in conservative rural areas. In terms of culture and demographics, Ohio is similar, and the turnout of the state’s Evangelical social conservatives could be decisive.
Adding to Ohio’s meaning is the fact that the other nine contests on Super Tuesday are likely to splinter between the candidates, offering few surprises.
The Bottomline is - No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio !!!
Mohit Dayal
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