Why is Newt Gingrich still in the race?

The biggest question in the last few weeks in current Republican race to become the next US President has been this: “Why is Newt Gingrich still in the race?” After Santorum surged to victories in the Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas primaries, calls have got stronger for Newt Gingrich to leave the race and endorse Rick Santorum in order to make the race more even and balanced. But we have not heard of any signs of giving-up from this eccentric, former House speaker from Georgia.

"Not gonna give up yet!"

A few days ago, there was an interesting piece in the Guardian talking about the impact on the race, if Newt Gingrich exits the race. It assumed, for the sake of argument, that Gingrich voters go to Santorum on the order of two-to-one, and calculated how it would impact the delegate allotment in the states yet to vote. The article concluded that any change in the candidate line-up seems unlikely to shake up the race now, and that a Romney victory is well assured, irrespective of the presence/absence of Gingrich in the race.

But the Red State argues that even though Romney is still the likely nominee, but with Gingrich in the race Romney wins a plurality of the delegates and the votes and that any “objective observer” would say that the only chance there is to stop Romney lies in a united conservative base. The rationale is that most of Romney’s wins are coming when either there is a strong home state like advantage (New Hampshire, Massachusetts, or one of the states that have a heavy Mormon populace built in), and there are more people voting against Romney than there is voting for him elsewhere!

Because of certain factors, Gingrich still has an outside chance at the nomination. He has a pan-American appeal, does well in Debates, and has a eccentric, yet charismatic personality. However, he needs to start winning some states, starting with Louisiana (24^th March) For the Speaker, there is no better place to start than Louisiana, a state on which Gingrich plans to focus more than either Romney or Santorum. A win there can prove to be a boost for strong showing in Texas and Florida too. In fact, I feel that even Fox News is supporting his candidature. Also, Newt Gingrich believes that his votes would in fact help Romney and not Santorum, and he doesn’t want to hand over the nomination to Romney on a platter.

But it is not going to be an easy task. Santorum leads the latest polls in the state with 25% of the votes followed by 21% for Romney and 20% for Gingrich. One of the reasons why Gingrich has been attacking Santorum right from the very beginning is that he needs a majority of the conservatives to vote for him. A win here would be a sure boost in the arm of his campaign.

As we’ve mentioned before, Romney’s campaign has fallen back on the “delegate math” to show the electability of their candidate.  Also, CBS puts Mitt Romney’s situation brilliantly as thus in this article that also speaks about the qualities of Santorum as a Presidential candidate, and on Newt hurting his chances:

“Mitt Romney, who came in third in both states (Alabama and Mississippi), is approaching the qualities of some cursed mythological figure who gets stronger on the outside while his insides decay: With each contest, Romney gains delegates but appears to get weaker”.

Personal Opinion: Mitt Romney might have negotiated a secret deal with New Gingrich to keep him in the race, and might have offered him the Vice-Presidential nomination, or perhaps a cabinet berth – although the latter explanation that “there's just nothing else Newt could be doing with his time that's more fun than running for president. After all, Gingrich does appeal to the conservatives, and he might be look good on the ballot J What adds to my conviction (that he has nothing better to do) is the lame technical excuses he’s making for giving reasons why he is still in the race.

P.S. Politic365 has a humourous take on why Newt Gingrich is still in the race J do check it out when you can J

Varun Reddy.