The race so far...

Hi friends

Sorry for the missing updates. Both the moderators were busy in the last few weeks. Here is a round-up of what happened in the last month:

1. Florida Primaries (January 31)

In what is considered a swing state, Mitt Romney held his nerves against a resurgent Newt Gingrich to win 46% of the votes and win all the delegates in a closed primary in Florida. Newt Gingrich came a distant second with 32% of the votes.  The background data can be found here.

2. Nevada Caucuses (February 4)

As expected, Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses by a huge margin, securing more than 50% of the votes in this closed caucus, picking 14 delegates on the way. Gingrich and Paul stood a distant second and third, with Santorum giving a dismal performance. The result was expected because of the huge Mormon contribution in this state.

3. Mini Super Tuesday - Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (February 7)

One of them could end up as the eventual
nominee after Super Tuesday :) 

The race took a dramatic turn on what turned out to be a great Tuesday for the uber-conservative Rick Santorum. After his tall claims of being the only true-conservative on the block did not yield positive results in many states after his surprise win in Iowa, Santorum was looking for redemption – and he got not one, but three redemptions, one of which was quite shocking!

In 2008, Mitt Romney had won Minnesota and Missouri quite convincingly with 41% and 60% of the votes respectively. But what he received in 2012 was quite a huge shock. Rick Santorum carried both these states with 45% and 55% respectively, with Romney coming in the 2^nd place in Minnesota, but falling behind Ron Paul in Missouri to 3^rd place. However, for Missouri, the primary election will not determine which delegates will be sent to the national convention; this will instead be determined by the caucuses in March. However, Santorum’s win was quite a boost for his campaign.

Colorado was not expected to be a cakewalk for Mitt Romney, as he was 3^rd in 2008. John McCain prevailed over Mike Huckabee in 2008, with Mitt Romney coming a close third. However, with Newt Gingrich not contesting the ballot (due to a missed deadline), the conservatives rallied behind Santorum to give him a convincing 40% to Mitt Romney’s 35% victory.

4. Maine Caucuses (February 11)

In a closely fought race, Mitt Romney edged out Ron Paul in the Maine Caucuses 39% to 35%. Ron Paul picked up 10 delegates, while Romney picked up 11. Mitt Romney had won more than 51% of the votes back in 2008, and had

5. The Litmus Test states – Michigan and Arizona (February 28)

Michigan and Arizona were the two states Mitt Romney needed to win to assert his dominance over the race, and he did it in style! He surpassed his vote %age count of 2008 to romp home in Michigan by winning 41% of the votes, although Rick Santorum was a close second. Arizona, won by John McCain in 2008, was a cake walk for Mitt Romney as he won 47% of the vote to take all the delegates from this state.

6. Wyoming – the complications mount (February 29)

Wyoming, a state with a total of 29 delegates, has three different steps in its delegate allocation process. Between February 9 and February 29, individual Wyoming counties hold caucuses. Caucus-goers cast ballots in a non-binding presidential preference vote. Then, county conventions are held between March 6 and March 10. Finally, in mid-April, the state GOP holds a convention. Of the total 29 delegates, 26 are tied to the caucus and convention process. Three delegates are unpledged RNC member delegates. The straw poll showed Mitt Romney as the clear favourite to win here.

7. Washington State (March 3)

Although Mitt Romney came 3^rd in the elections held in 2008, he scored a decisive victory in 2012 winning 37.6% of the vote. Ron Paul edged out Rick Santorum 25% to 24% for the 2^nd spot.

The final tally (not counting Wyoming) is as follows: (AP estimates)

Candidate	IA	NH	SC	FL	NV	CO	MN	ME	AZ	MI	WA	Total
Mitt Romney	12	7	2	50	14	9	0	11	29	16	30	180
Rick Santorum	13	0	0	0	3	18	37	0	0	14	5	90
Newt Gingrich	0	0	23	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	30
Ron Paul	0	3	0	0	5	0	0	10	0	0	5	23
Jon Huntsman*	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Unpledged / Ex-officio	3	0	0	0	0	6	3	3	0	0	3	18

* He's not in the race anymore

Mitt Romney has a clear lead so far but his nearest rival can catch up on Super Tuesday i.e. 6^th March, 2012. What is that you might ask? Well Mohit has the briefing in the next report coming soon.

Varun Reddy.